The Chair-Armed Quarterback

Because I'm right, dammit, and it's cheaper than either booze or therapy.

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Location: Daejeon, Korea, by way of Detroit

Just your average six-foot-eight carbon-based life form

Thursday, September 06, 2007

Kornheiser v. Wilbon...sorta...

Now that the Michael Vick fiasco is finally out of the way, we can now get down to the real business of the upcoming season: correctly forecasting the conferences, and wiping the mat with Bill Bryan (again). (You may remember Bill as the guy who finished First Loser, er, second to me in a sports writing contest last year...or, you may remember him from To Catch A Predator 9 on NBC, where he was nabbed at the home of someone alleging to be 13...it's what I heard, anyway...)

The plan is simple: I will offer you my decades of accrued NFL wisdom on a weekly basis, gleaned through years of intense study, while Bill will offer what can only be termed the lighter side of sports comedy (I hesitate to call them “picks,” as criminally inaccurate as most of them are, and calling them “opinions” does a major disservice to the term “opinions”).

TO GET TO BILL'S SITE (www.williamlbryan.com), SO AS TO READ REAL, GENUINE FOOTBALL OPINION FROM YOUR HUMBLE SCRIBE, CLICK ON THE ARTICLE'S TITLE (in this case, 'Kornheiser v. Wilbon...sorta', above)

Again, I apologize in advance for anything the other guy says. You know how it is…

Bill: I accept your apology. Don’t let it happen again.

AFC East:
Van’s Pick: New England Patriots
Last season, an allegedly rebuilding campaign, saw them almost represent their conference in the Super Bowl, and this with the Little Sisters Of The Poor at WR. This season, you can name their receivers. Better yet, Sweatshirt Bill has a shiny new toy to play with at MLB in Adalius Thomas…and opposing offenses in the AFC just shuddered. If this team doesn’t represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, the next one will…

Bill: Duh. No, seriously, duh.

AFC North
Van’s Pick: Baltimore Ravens
No, really? All this team did was go 13-3 without Willis McGahee. And, last time I checked, Rex Ryan was still the defensive coordinator. You’ll remember Rex’s daddy…pig farmer named Buddy. Mark Clayton becomes the most famous receiver named Mark Clayton since, uh, Mark Clayton (and if you’re old enough to remember the guy that used to play catch with Dan Marino, welcome to the rest of your life). This team is, as Ron White says, l-o-o-o-o-a-d-d-d-d-e-d…

Bill: Do not let the fact that you stumbled into a couple of correct picks lull you into a false sense of security. Keep your luggage with you at all times.

AFC South
Van’s Pick: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have been the class of this division since, like, well, since there ever was an AFC South. Defensive defections notwithstanding (say that three times), they remain the class of their division.

Bill: Your ability to gloss over key losses to an already putrid defense is disquieting. Are you a Republican?

AFC West
Van’s Pick: San Diego Chargers
Even Norv Turner can’t keep this team from making the playoffs. However, he can keep them from reaching the AFC Championship game. Eventually, someone in charge is NOT going to hire someone whose championship pedigree hasn’t worn threadbare (Turner), or hire a guy haunted by the ghosts of playoff failures past (Schottenheimer)…

Bill: We should play for stakes this year - in addition to the usual beer that you will never have to pay off by virtue of living on the dark side of the moon – how about the guy with the most correct picks gets to be the Chargers’ head coach next year?

AFC Wildcard 1
Van’s Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Carson Palmer continues playing Third Fiddle behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady; Ocho Cinco and Whosyamama continue to catch darts; and the defense remains ornery. This team will win enough to secure a playoff berth, but they aren’t deep enough to go further.

Bill: Allow me to commit to a heresy here that may come back to haunt me. The Cincinnati Bengals are the Indianapolis Colts, only better. Big Brother Peyton is a more proven commodity and does finally sport some jewelry, but can you look me in the eye and tell me he is better than Carson Palmer? Better arm? Better leader? And if you need a receiver to make a play, would you take Mr. Cinco or Marvin Harrison? Joseph Addai has a much better upside than Rudi Johnson, but it’s a bit of the reverse Palmer-Manning argument. The Bengals D is absolutely mediocre, but WOW, would I take mediocre over freaking awful.

AFC Wildcard 2
Van’s Pick: Tennessee Titans
Some teams take on the personality of their leaders. If I’m gambling on a young QB leading my team to the playoffs, I’m putting the mortgage on Vince Young. The guy won with a whole lotta nothing happening at WR and RB last year, and it sez so right here that he’ll keep right on doing that because, unlike Mike ConVick, Young is the uber-athletic QB who maximizes his teammates’ gifts, as opposed to exposing their flaws.

Bill: That’s a cute speech about Vince Young. You’re a cute guy. Anyone ever tell you that? Here’s my advice to you, free of charge ‘cause I’m a magnanimous guy – put this one away. Give it to us two years from now. Two years from now, you will be right. This year, you are backing the soon to be proven clueless figurehead of a six-win team.

AFC Offensive Player Of The Year:
Van’s Pick: Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis
Right about now, Edgerrin James is feeling like the guy who told the hot girl he was dating that she’d be sorry when he left…only to find out that, who knew? she wasn’t, after all. It’s really almost unfair. Addai is everything James was in the Colts offense, minus the University of MiaMEEEE attitude. Addai will be the most complete offensive weapon in the Colts’ considerable arsenal this season, and will likely cost his QB the MVP by splitting the vote.

Bill: Joseph Addai blows up this year. Sez so right here, as the saying goes. But in the quarterback-rich AFC, a running back is going to have to put up two large on the ground and catch 70 balls to get a sniff. Chicks dig the long ball, but man-crushes are all quarterbacks.

AFC Defensive Player Of The Year
Van’s Pick: Adalius Thomas, New England
If you thought Jeff Fisher could take advantage of this guy’s ability, wait until Bill Belichick unleashes him on opposing offenses. This guy will be a bigger, stronger, shorn version of Troy Polamalu, and he will stand out in a perennially superior defense.

Bill: When you try to sell Thomas as the 270-pound Polamalu, you are just luring people onto the rocks. Stop it. Really. Thomas is an intriguing talent, but it will take at least this year, and maybe next as well, for he and Belichick to adapt to one another. Playing in a new scheme is tough, but learning it at six different positions as you beg is well nigh impossible.

AFC Rookie of the Year
Van’s Pick: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo
This team could actually improve at RB after losing Willis McGahee. Lynch is a genuine mail-carrier who will need no introduction after Week 2. With J.P. Losman as his QB, he’s going to be delivering all season long.

Bill: Bust. Lynch is the Redskins’ next great third-down back, but he is going to need to get his brains beat out off-tackle in Buffalo for a few years before that comes to fruition. He needs to man up a la Thomas Jones to be productive, and that’s a lot of hours in the weight room, kids.

NFC East
Van’s Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Either the ‘Boys or the Iggles win this division, and, last I checked, the Cowboys still have better WRs than Philly. The ‘Boys also have a better defense, and a decidedly less distracted head coach. Tony Romo picks the ball up, T.O. continues to catch everything in sight (anyone catch his numbers after his, er, dramatic season? Wow), and the two-headed Barber-Jones monster piles up the yards. How ‘bout them Cowboys!

Bill: First of all, stat boy wants to point out that TO led the NFL in dropped passes last year, a stat nobody even knew they kept until it belonged to your boy. But maybe you are right – maybe he does not see that well. Now then, since we essentially agree here, you bring up a philosophical point that has been bothering me – is there a possibility that the rigors of being an NFL head coach diametrically oppose the necessary commitment to be a good father? I am not in any way asserting that Andy Reid, Bill Belichick or Tony Dungy are responsible for their sons’ troubles, but how many pieces need to line up together before it’s a pattern?

NFC North
Van’s Pick: Chicago Bears
Really, nothing to see here. Move along.

Bill: Holy Mary mother of God, have you seen the rest of this division? Is there really, seriously nobody in the Arena League that they can promote to challenge the Bears here?

NFC South
Van’s Pick: New Orleans Saints
Let’s see: everybody back? Check. Division still suck? Check. Still going to lose to the Bears? Check. What’s not to love about this team? They have the best offense in the NFC, bar none, a relatively weak division (only Carolina can dispute their claim), and a reason to keep pushing (that beatdown they took in the Chi last season…ugh)

Bill: I don’t love their defense, although it was mysteriously better than it was under Jim Haslett with essentially the same players, and I am concerned about the loss of Joe Horn. Horn is a first-class wingnut, but was a leader and mentor to a talented, but very young receiving corps. I like the Saints, but although I love Drew Brees, they are one shoulder injury away from 7-9. You have to downgrade them for that. And no, I have no explanation for why I did not apply the same logic to the Eagles.

NFC West:
Van’s Pick: San Francisco 49ers
This may well be the kiss of death, but…”all the pieces are in place.” I had to say it, you understand. Alex Smith is poised on the edge of greatness. Frank Gore is already there. Vernon Davis is the next great tight end in a league replete with very good ones. The defense has been improved, and we’ve even added a necessary chemistry factor: Seattle castoff Darrell Jackson comes in and provides a little “you should never have cut me” moxie. This is the most complete team in the division.

Bill: I hate myself for having made this pick. I guess that means I hate you, too.

NFC Wildcard 1
Van’s Pick: Carolina Panthers
They’ve got a nice QB, who is regressing. They’ve got some nice defensive players, yet their defense ranked near the bottom of the league last season. They’ve got some nice RBs, but the wrong guy is starting. And there’s always a problem when your best offensive player is an oft-injured receiver. They’ll easily make the playoffs in the talent-depleted NFC, but they won’t go farther than that.

Bill: John Fox is an excellent defensive coach, they are healthier than last year (at least temporarily), and so the Panthers defense will be much better this year. That’s all I got. You pretty much killed it otherwise.

NFC Wildcard 2
Van’s Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
This may be as much backtracking as you’ll hear from me, but you can bank this: if Philly doesn’t win the division, they get the wild card. If Dallas doesn’t win the division, the ‘Boys get the wild card. I just happen to like the Cowboys a little more than the Eagles right now, but that isn’t to say that I don’t like the Eagles to play well.

Bill: Precisely. Apparently, the wise football fan is ambivalent about this division race going into the year. It should be noted, however, that neither of these teams would be good enough to make the playoffs in the AFC.

NFC Offensive Player of the Year
Van’s Pick: Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
The kid goes to the first of many Pro Bowls this season, with offensive numbers that will put him in some pretty nice Niners company.

Bill: I should be impressed that you went out on a limb somewhere rather than playing the chalk all the way up and down your card, but I am not. I am very impressed with Alex Smith’s improvement, as well, but he is still inexperienced, did not get the opportunity in the preseason to show that he has improved his blitz management (which was atrocious), and he is absolutely no better than the third best quarterback in the NFC. Your Pro Bowl quarterbacks will be McNabb, Brees and Grossman. Smith will have to be satisfied with being better than Jim Druckenmiller.

NFC Defensive Player of the Year
Van’s Pick: Tommie Harris, Chicago Bears
Harris stays healthy this season because of an improved defensive line (a scary-enough thought), but he provides the room for Urlacher, Hillenmeyer, and Briggs to do their search and destroy thing, while also doing his best Michael Myers impression on the interior. This guy will be positively Jurassic for 16 games, and will play well enough that fans won’t worry about Rex Grossman mishandling the football occasionally.

Bill: Whatever, dude. Urlacher’s name is already on the hardware. We can all agree that Harris will make it possible, but he will go home this off-season without his props, as will every great defensive tackle until the mountains tumble to the sea and all that.

NFC Rookie of the Year
Van’s Pick: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
We saw this one coming, after a stellar season with the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets in which he made highlight reel catch after highlight reel catch. We saw it coming at the Combine, when he ran a blinding 4.2 in borrowed shoes. We’ll see it a lot this season because the Lions stink out loud and will be behind in every game they play, which means a lot of balls in the air as the team tries to come back…which means lots of Calvin Johnson pictures on the Worldwide Fearless Leader. This one’s a gimme.

Bill: Calvin Johnson is so good.

Super Bowl:
Van’s Pick: Chicago over anyone the AFC runs up the flagpole.
Oh, yes, I’m taking the Bears against the field, and I will win for one simple reason: Tommie Harris. The Bears defense was good enough to get to the Super Bowl last season without him; they will be utterly dominant with him on the field. They will be so good that the offense will be an afterthought…an afterthought that routinely starts drives on the opposing team’s 35, that is…Lance Briggs will be auditioning for some Dwight Freeney money, Devin Hester will continue to outrun everything chasing him, Cedric Benson will be just good enough to justify letting Thomas Jones go, and they will be shuffling in Chicago.

Bill: Ced has more miles on him than your Datsun B210. This is a guy who carried an LJ-sized load at Midland Lee – he was a 30 year-old running back before he ever set foot in Austin. Adrian Peterson will be their serviceable ball carrier by mid-season. I have some concerns about the Bears’ off-season losses, namely Ron Rivera. You could claim that Lovie Smith is the real defensive architect, but his track record is inconclusive – we know he was solely responsible under Mike Martz in St. Louis, and he produced some really ordinary defenses. Mostly, I have already tired of your Bears worship. Being the best team in the NFC is like winning the Pacific Coast League – it’s better than second, but does not qualify you to play in the bigs.

Here's hoping that I didn't hurt the little fella too badly...after all, there's still 17 weeks of football and the playoffs ahead of us...heh heh heh...

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