Patriot Games?

So I'm following this story about the New England Patriots and the allegations concerning whether they steal defensive signals when the good people at ProFootballTalk.com ask a legitimate question:

Given that there are only 40 seconds between plays, is it even feasible to suggest that a team can steal defensive signals and relay that information to the offense in a timely enough manner to counteract the coming defense?

In the spy-versus-spy world that is NFL coaching and scouting, it is absolutely feasible.

All it takes is hours of film study and analysis, some cross-referencing, and a little old-fashioned computerized elbow grease...especially if you already know what you're looking for.

Every team has tendencies based on down, distance, and situation, because those teams take on the personalities of the people doing the decision-making. For example, if last year's Chargers were conservative to a fault, it's because the former head coach, Marty Schottenheimer, was conservative to a fault. He's just not as likely to call a go-route on third-and-2 deep in his own territory in the first quarter, while a Mike Martz or a Ron Turner might. If you know the man, you know the tendency.

Those tendencies can be confirmed on film. If you have a lot of computerized video storage (and what up-to-date NFL team doesn't...except the Browns, of course, who are still using cave drawings from the leather helmet era), you can sort your video by as many parameters as you can imagine: coach, personnel, down, distance, game time, field position, or any combination thereof. Watch enough film, and the pattern emerges. This is the essence of game-planning.

Now, let's say you focus a camera on the other guy's defensive coaches. All you need is a time stamp that matches the game time, and you can match the signal to the play being executed. Mark the relevant information (down, distance, situation, personnel, etc.), and compare it with the hours of film you've already compiled and the pattern is confirmed.

(Worse, as PFT suggested, word around the campfire is that the Patriots were putting microphones (!!) into the helmets of their defensive linemen, to capture offensive line calls and quarterback audibles. Again, match that information against the hindsight of film, and the pattern is confirmed. Maybe that's why the Patriots could just about run anyone out on defense, even Troy Brown (!!), and still be effective...hmmm...)

It would be like playing Texas Hold 'Em against Doyle Brunson and Phil Ivey, and knowing what their cards were before the flop.

And to answer Mike Florio's question, if you already have that information present, yes, you can relay that information to the offense.

Given the factors already in play, what you are looking for as a signal thief is confirmation. You already know that *Team A* is likely to zone blitz, based on their coach's tendencies in this situation. You've already called a play package that takes the zone blitz into account, but doesn't lock you into a zone blitz reaction. When you see what you suspect was coming, that's a simple YES to the offensive coordinator, who then relays that to the QB, and that might not take two seconds to accomplish.

The more signals that the Patriots have information for, the more quickly they can adjust the play package being sent in. As we know, the sophistication of modern offenses allows for multiple options in each play. If the Patriots are intercepting signals that they have already stolen and confirmed, especially at halftime, that adjustment is as simple as a couple more syllables.

Obviously, the system is not entirely foolproof because of the human element. Just because you know a zone blitz is coming doesn't mean you can do anything about it, if the athletes executing that blitz are faster than your blocking scheme can account for. Or, it could be something as mundane as a lineman slipping just a little bit while trying to react to an anticipated stunt, or a receiver just failing to beat the jam that he knew was coming.

That said, knowing what the defense is calling would amount to a huuuuuge competitive disadvantage and might explain the Patriots' otherworldly success of the last few seasons.

And this is what we are left with: at the very least, we must question the authenticity of New England's titles, because these charges have been made against Bill Belichick before on multiple occasions. Like the NBA scandal involving Tim Donaghy, this goes to the heart of the integrity of the game. If it is confirmed that Belichick and his staff have conspired to steal signals and use that information to gain an unfair competitive advantage, Judge Kennesaw Mountain Goodell must drop the gavel on Belichick as swiftly and surely as he did on Adam "Pac-Man" Jones and Michael Vick.

And like the aforementioned Vick tragedy, one wonders what will be revealed as this particular sweater continues to unravel, because, as the ink-stained wretches like to say, this story has legs.