Week 14 Prognostications - Lies, Damn Lies, And Bill's Picks
I saw a piece on Nostradamus on the History Channel a few weeks ago, and in addition to being regularly wrong, he was a complete paranoiac wingnut. So, on the off chance that Van manages to edge me this year, I have already set the groundwork for what I intend to think about prognostication generally.
Van: I can see it now: Bill crowing about moral victories and his lone, great week of domination as he tries to console himself that second place really isn’t first loser. Again. Not that I’m counting, you understand.
Experts have started to nibble around the edge of the sudden shift in fashion away from the 350 carry running back, but nobody has yet applied it to where it really matters, which is fantasy football. Next year, only the foolish league will draft running backs with 20 of the first 24 picks, because suddenly backs are what receivers have always been – a commodity readily available on the waiver wire starting in Week Two. Did anybody draft Kolby Smith, Earnest Graham, Derrick Ward, Andre Hall, Ryan Grant, Justin Fargas, Ron Dayne, or any of the other spare runners who turned in at least one monster week?
Van: Methinks my perpetually-befuddled pal hath a point. If anything, the field at running back has leveled out tremendously. There used to be a fairly steep drop-off point from the elite backs to what some have called “The Eddie George Level,” where guys like Reuben Droughns and Thomas Jones are carrying the mail. Now? Other than Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, I don’t know of a back that I’d draft before the third round. Quarterback is now the pick-du-jour of the first round. Do not be surprised to see six or seven signal callers gone before the first round is done next summer.
The ability to reevaluate the landscape consistently is what will allow me to overcome this minor deficit and beat Van this year.
Van: The ability to manipulate reality to whatever suits him is why he will lose to me this year. Check my picks out here and compare, o mighty wise shopper.
Ours not to question why, ours but to do or die. On, on, on.
Carolina at Jacksonville
Bill’s Pick: Jacksonville
Van’s Pick: Jacksonville
It would probably be unfair to judge these two franchises who showed up on our doorstep the same day twelve short years ago by this game, but then, did I ever claim to be fair? Word around the campfire is that John Fox’s job is on the line, that The Chin has measured the commute and found it suitable. Fifteen teams hope that this is so, because Fox is an upgrade for all of them, and no matter how much you love Cowher, he would be losing with David Carr and Vinny Testaverde, too. Now that I cadged your catchphrase, Mr. Walker, what campfire is this, exactly?
Van: The campfire? Hey, the game is sold, not told, rookie. Anyway, you already made my point for me, in your typically stilted, backhanded way: Bill Cowher will NOT be coaching the Panthers anytime soon, for the very reasons you have elucidated: no QB. Quarterbacks are either healthy or they are broken or they are Rex Grossman, who was broken, then healthy, then “made us all wish he was still broken.” Paraphrasing Denethor from the box-set special edition of LOTR, “Do not trouble me with Jake Delhomme. I know him and his uses are but few.” Fact is, if Delhomme was going to do it, he’d have done it by now. Having already coached a QB that has done “it,” Cowher isn’t going to be sucked into believing any signal caller on the Panthers roster is anywhere near the level of the last guy he had. And if the Panthers kick John Fox to the curb, who wears the headset next season?
San Diego at Tennessee
Bill’s Pick: Tennessee
Van’s Pick: San Diego
The Chargers are Dead Men Walking. With A.J. Smith’s puzzling announcement that Norv Turner will be back net year, the Chargers have nothing left to play for. This is like the end of Trading Places, where it turns out that Jason Robards ruined Dan Ackroyd’s life for a dollar. You can look for even the indomitable LaDainian Tomlinson to shuffle listlessly through this game, because not only will they continue to be mediocre team in a horrible division this year, which was not exactly their preseason goal, but now there is no next year. What are they supposed to tell each other? “Wait ‘til 2009, dog. We’ll get ‘em in 2009.”
Van: First off, Jason Robards wasn’t even IN “Trading Places,” bonehead. Somehow you’re slandering either Ralph Bellamy or Don Ameche, venal sins to be sure, but still... Second, this is precisely the kind of game that the Chargers will win convincingly, to the sound of experts salivating across the land. “Oh, they’ve got the ship righted.” “Oh, Norv’s gonna really break out with this team.” Oh, crap. Whether they stomp the Titans or not, they are still no better than fourth or fifth in the AFC right now, which still spells “first round playoff exit.”
Miami at Buffalo
Bill’s Pick: Buffalo
Van’s Pick: Buffalo
D-III product Fred Jackson looked pretty good last week, and every time he touches the ball, I just want to yell, “Janet Jackson? Got outta the car looking more like Freddy Jackson!” Not that it matters – the love of Van’s life, Marshawn Lynch, looks to be back in the lineup this week, lighting up safeties, fighting for extra yards and sitting on Van’s lap singing “Happy Birthday” to him on national television. I still do not believe that Miami will go 0-16 (though the magnificence with which they blew a golden opportunity against the brutal J!E!T!S! suggests otherwise), but I can tell you that when they finally do get one, it will not be on the road, and certainly not in cold weather.
Van: Then, according to whatever it is that you call logic, they will have to win one of their remaining two home games. Against either Baltimore or Cincinnati. First off, there is NO STINKIN WAY that a Ray Lewis team loses to a winless team, period, not if he has to make every damn tackle his own self…which, in this case, might not be that big of a challenge. Second, are you seriously suggesting that Carson Palmer won’t find Whosyamama, Ocho Stinko, and Jailbreak Henry all night? And I think we can forget about a win at New England, even if The Belicheat plays the second string. They blew the only chance remaining to them to avoid history when they laid down against the Jets last weekend. They are done. Perhaps the ’72 Curmudgeons will send the current edition their cases of champagne, to be opened when the next team fails to go O-Fer-The-Season…
St. Louis at Cincinnati
Bill’s Pick: St. Louis
Van’s Pick: St. Louis
The problem here is that Paul Brown Stadium has no roof. This means that wind, snow, even sunshine can run amok through the field, and any of these things are enough to give Marc Bulger a season-ending injury. The Rams are not very good with or without Bulger, with or without Steven Jackson, with or without them, with or without them. They just suck, with or without them. But at least they care. I would have a hard time picking the Bungles for student council treasurer right now, because a lack of talent trumps a lack of integrity every time. If the Rams manage to strike quickly, watch the Bungles magically disintegrate into a big dollop of disinterested goo.
Van: Tell ya what, ya gotta respect the effort that Torry Holt has put in this season. His numbers are typically stellar, even though he’s been the lone consistent offensive option all season. I can’t even tell you how he’s done it, what with both Flotsam and Jetsam playing QB this season and no running game to speak of. The Bengals? Meh.
Tampa Bay at Houston
Bill’s Pick: Houston
Van’s Pick: Tampa Bay
If it’s Hanukkah, it must be Sage Rosenfels. I like the Texans and I just don’t get the Bucs, so that’s all the analysis you get.
Van: I like Tampa Bay because they are better than Houston, period. Say what you will of Earnest Graham, but he utterly trumps anything at running back for the Texans. Speaking of which, the last GM passed on Reggie Bush, and rightly so, because he saw a lot of money being flushed down a second-and-long hole…which makes it rather inexplicable that the current guy spent a HUUUGE pile of dough on a guy trying to make first downs from the trainer’s table. Still, Houston fans are happy because all the amyl nitrate that David Carr popped was making their eyes water.
Pittsburgh at New England
Bill’s Pick: New England
Van’s Pick: New England
Some Steeler safety of whom I have never heard has guaranteed victory over the Patriots. This is exactly why there is still hazing in football, why it is occasionally your teammates’ responsibility to duct tape your dumb ass into your own locker. While the Patriots inability to stop the run, exposed originally by the Colts and since used by everyone who can stay close enough to still use the run, is a little disquieting, but it sez so right here that America’s Favorite Football Coach deploys a couple of new ideas aimed at stopping Fast Willie Parker, whom you may remember I don’t like anyway.
Van: “Meddle not in the affairs of the dragon; for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.” Y’know, we all like a good upset, largely because they are so rare. For all of the Yankees’ postseason struggles, the fact remains that they’ve won more World Series’ in the last decade than the Cubs have in the last century. Some cipher on Pittsburgh guaranteeing victory is about as bright as bearding a dragon in its own lair. And, last I checked, there ain’t a Red Crosse Knight, Beowulf, or Bard the Bowman on Pittsburgh’s active roster. This game is a rout by halftime.
Kansas City at Denver
Bill’s Pick: Denver
Van’s Pick: Denver
I have a reason this time. Travis Henry is Joe Pendleton from Heaven Can Wait, back from the dead to get it right. This week, armed with the rock, some gimpy backups and a new lease on life, he faces a Chiefs defense playing with the Bengals’ cast-off linebackers. Javon Walker is a week healthier. The best thing that can happen for the Broncos’ defense is the opportunity to play an actual NFL game where the offense and special teams do not continually place them in ridiculous situations. There is no guarantee that this will happen, but at least the Chefs are missing enough playmakers that the Donkeys will have to give the ball up without much prodding, which I always hope they stop doing.
Van: I have a better reason this time. Kansas City stinks on wheat. The only touchdown they scored last weekend came from a defensive lineman. That’s not good. Neither are they.
Cleveland at the Jets
Bill’s Pick: The Jets
Van’s Pick: Cleveland
I hate myself for this pick, but the Jets are playing half-decent ball right now and the Browns look to me like a team looking for a place to collapse. The Browns looked really good in the middle rounds, but this is an honest-to-goodness heavyweight fight, full 16 rounds. Big boy stuff. The Jets ducked and covered for most of the season, meaning they will get easily outpointed but have an unlikely level of punching power left.
Van: I actually changed my mind on this one only about a hundred times. It sez so right here that the Brownies finally get off the schnide and win a road game. The Jets can be had. All the Browns have to do is get them into a shootout, because the Jets don’t have enough bullets in the holster to compete. If Cleveland gets out to an early lead of like 10-0 or 14-0, it’s over before halftime. If the Jets are leading by some low, baseball-type score, the Brownies lose. I’m taking the Browns to score a bundle in this one.
Indianapolis at Baltimore
Bill’s Pick: Indianapolis
Van’s Pick: Indianapolis
The Colts with a bullet. One of those great big ones they use to hunt blue whales (or, you know, that they would use to hunt blue whales if they did such a thing). The Ravens played their Super Bowl last week against the Patriots, and this short week is not enough time for them to face that the season is still going. The Ravens very nearly conquered Everest, but on the final ascent managed to coach, play, and talk themselves out of going any further. For the record, people who do that on Everest generally die.
Van: The Colts can’t beat the Patriots, and, right now, they might not be able to beat the Cowboys, but they will pimp-slap the taste out of the Ravens’ mouths this weekend. The Colts match up so much better with Baltimore than the Patriots do, because of Joseph Addai. Having him as an ultra-reliable, yard-getting, clock-eating option on the offense will stop Rex Ryan’s Havoc Wreakers from pillaging the offense the way they pillaged New England last weekend, AND the Colts regularly use the no-huddle, which means that the heavy-breathers up front for Baltimore will be gassed before the first Peyton Manning commercial.
Van: I can see it now: Bill crowing about moral victories and his lone, great week of domination as he tries to console himself that second place really isn’t first loser. Again. Not that I’m counting, you understand.
Experts have started to nibble around the edge of the sudden shift in fashion away from the 350 carry running back, but nobody has yet applied it to where it really matters, which is fantasy football. Next year, only the foolish league will draft running backs with 20 of the first 24 picks, because suddenly backs are what receivers have always been – a commodity readily available on the waiver wire starting in Week Two. Did anybody draft Kolby Smith, Earnest Graham, Derrick Ward, Andre Hall, Ryan Grant, Justin Fargas, Ron Dayne, or any of the other spare runners who turned in at least one monster week?
Van: Methinks my perpetually-befuddled pal hath a point. If anything, the field at running back has leveled out tremendously. There used to be a fairly steep drop-off point from the elite backs to what some have called “The Eddie George Level,” where guys like Reuben Droughns and Thomas Jones are carrying the mail. Now? Other than Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson, I don’t know of a back that I’d draft before the third round. Quarterback is now the pick-du-jour of the first round. Do not be surprised to see six or seven signal callers gone before the first round is done next summer.
The ability to reevaluate the landscape consistently is what will allow me to overcome this minor deficit and beat Van this year.
Van: The ability to manipulate reality to whatever suits him is why he will lose to me this year. Check my picks out here and compare, o mighty wise shopper.
Ours not to question why, ours but to do or die. On, on, on.
Carolina at Jacksonville
Bill’s Pick: Jacksonville
Van’s Pick: Jacksonville
It would probably be unfair to judge these two franchises who showed up on our doorstep the same day twelve short years ago by this game, but then, did I ever claim to be fair? Word around the campfire is that John Fox’s job is on the line, that The Chin has measured the commute and found it suitable. Fifteen teams hope that this is so, because Fox is an upgrade for all of them, and no matter how much you love Cowher, he would be losing with David Carr and Vinny Testaverde, too. Now that I cadged your catchphrase, Mr. Walker, what campfire is this, exactly?
Van: The campfire? Hey, the game is sold, not told, rookie. Anyway, you already made my point for me, in your typically stilted, backhanded way: Bill Cowher will NOT be coaching the Panthers anytime soon, for the very reasons you have elucidated: no QB. Quarterbacks are either healthy or they are broken or they are Rex Grossman, who was broken, then healthy, then “made us all wish he was still broken.” Paraphrasing Denethor from the box-set special edition of LOTR, “Do not trouble me with Jake Delhomme. I know him and his uses are but few.” Fact is, if Delhomme was going to do it, he’d have done it by now. Having already coached a QB that has done “it,” Cowher isn’t going to be sucked into believing any signal caller on the Panthers roster is anywhere near the level of the last guy he had. And if the Panthers kick John Fox to the curb, who wears the headset next season?
San Diego at Tennessee
Bill’s Pick: Tennessee
Van’s Pick: San Diego
The Chargers are Dead Men Walking. With A.J. Smith’s puzzling announcement that Norv Turner will be back net year, the Chargers have nothing left to play for. This is like the end of Trading Places, where it turns out that Jason Robards ruined Dan Ackroyd’s life for a dollar. You can look for even the indomitable LaDainian Tomlinson to shuffle listlessly through this game, because not only will they continue to be mediocre team in a horrible division this year, which was not exactly their preseason goal, but now there is no next year. What are they supposed to tell each other? “Wait ‘til 2009, dog. We’ll get ‘em in 2009.”
Van: First off, Jason Robards wasn’t even IN “Trading Places,” bonehead. Somehow you’re slandering either Ralph Bellamy or Don Ameche, venal sins to be sure, but still... Second, this is precisely the kind of game that the Chargers will win convincingly, to the sound of experts salivating across the land. “Oh, they’ve got the ship righted.” “Oh, Norv’s gonna really break out with this team.” Oh, crap. Whether they stomp the Titans or not, they are still no better than fourth or fifth in the AFC right now, which still spells “first round playoff exit.”
Miami at Buffalo
Bill’s Pick: Buffalo
Van’s Pick: Buffalo
D-III product Fred Jackson looked pretty good last week, and every time he touches the ball, I just want to yell, “Janet Jackson? Got outta the car looking more like Freddy Jackson!” Not that it matters – the love of Van’s life, Marshawn Lynch, looks to be back in the lineup this week, lighting up safeties, fighting for extra yards and sitting on Van’s lap singing “Happy Birthday” to him on national television. I still do not believe that Miami will go 0-16 (though the magnificence with which they blew a golden opportunity against the brutal J!E!T!S! suggests otherwise), but I can tell you that when they finally do get one, it will not be on the road, and certainly not in cold weather.
Van: Then, according to whatever it is that you call logic, they will have to win one of their remaining two home games. Against either Baltimore or Cincinnati. First off, there is NO STINKIN WAY that a Ray Lewis team loses to a winless team, period, not if he has to make every damn tackle his own self…which, in this case, might not be that big of a challenge. Second, are you seriously suggesting that Carson Palmer won’t find Whosyamama, Ocho Stinko, and Jailbreak Henry all night? And I think we can forget about a win at New England, even if The Belicheat plays the second string. They blew the only chance remaining to them to avoid history when they laid down against the Jets last weekend. They are done. Perhaps the ’72 Curmudgeons will send the current edition their cases of champagne, to be opened when the next team fails to go O-Fer-The-Season…
St. Louis at Cincinnati
Bill’s Pick: St. Louis
Van’s Pick: St. Louis
The problem here is that Paul Brown Stadium has no roof. This means that wind, snow, even sunshine can run amok through the field, and any of these things are enough to give Marc Bulger a season-ending injury. The Rams are not very good with or without Bulger, with or without Steven Jackson, with or without them, with or without them. They just suck, with or without them. But at least they care. I would have a hard time picking the Bungles for student council treasurer right now, because a lack of talent trumps a lack of integrity every time. If the Rams manage to strike quickly, watch the Bungles magically disintegrate into a big dollop of disinterested goo.
Van: Tell ya what, ya gotta respect the effort that Torry Holt has put in this season. His numbers are typically stellar, even though he’s been the lone consistent offensive option all season. I can’t even tell you how he’s done it, what with both Flotsam and Jetsam playing QB this season and no running game to speak of. The Bengals? Meh.
Tampa Bay at Houston
Bill’s Pick: Houston
Van’s Pick: Tampa Bay
If it’s Hanukkah, it must be Sage Rosenfels. I like the Texans and I just don’t get the Bucs, so that’s all the analysis you get.
Van: I like Tampa Bay because they are better than Houston, period. Say what you will of Earnest Graham, but he utterly trumps anything at running back for the Texans. Speaking of which, the last GM passed on Reggie Bush, and rightly so, because he saw a lot of money being flushed down a second-and-long hole…which makes it rather inexplicable that the current guy spent a HUUUGE pile of dough on a guy trying to make first downs from the trainer’s table. Still, Houston fans are happy because all the amyl nitrate that David Carr popped was making their eyes water.
Pittsburgh at New England
Bill’s Pick: New England
Van’s Pick: New England
Some Steeler safety of whom I have never heard has guaranteed victory over the Patriots. This is exactly why there is still hazing in football, why it is occasionally your teammates’ responsibility to duct tape your dumb ass into your own locker. While the Patriots inability to stop the run, exposed originally by the Colts and since used by everyone who can stay close enough to still use the run, is a little disquieting, but it sez so right here that America’s Favorite Football Coach deploys a couple of new ideas aimed at stopping Fast Willie Parker, whom you may remember I don’t like anyway.
Van: “Meddle not in the affairs of the dragon; for you are crunchy and taste good with ketchup.” Y’know, we all like a good upset, largely because they are so rare. For all of the Yankees’ postseason struggles, the fact remains that they’ve won more World Series’ in the last decade than the Cubs have in the last century. Some cipher on Pittsburgh guaranteeing victory is about as bright as bearding a dragon in its own lair. And, last I checked, there ain’t a Red Crosse Knight, Beowulf, or Bard the Bowman on Pittsburgh’s active roster. This game is a rout by halftime.
Kansas City at Denver
Bill’s Pick: Denver
Van’s Pick: Denver
I have a reason this time. Travis Henry is Joe Pendleton from Heaven Can Wait, back from the dead to get it right. This week, armed with the rock, some gimpy backups and a new lease on life, he faces a Chiefs defense playing with the Bengals’ cast-off linebackers. Javon Walker is a week healthier. The best thing that can happen for the Broncos’ defense is the opportunity to play an actual NFL game where the offense and special teams do not continually place them in ridiculous situations. There is no guarantee that this will happen, but at least the Chefs are missing enough playmakers that the Donkeys will have to give the ball up without much prodding, which I always hope they stop doing.
Van: I have a better reason this time. Kansas City stinks on wheat. The only touchdown they scored last weekend came from a defensive lineman. That’s not good. Neither are they.
Cleveland at the Jets
Bill’s Pick: The Jets
Van’s Pick: Cleveland
I hate myself for this pick, but the Jets are playing half-decent ball right now and the Browns look to me like a team looking for a place to collapse. The Browns looked really good in the middle rounds, but this is an honest-to-goodness heavyweight fight, full 16 rounds. Big boy stuff. The Jets ducked and covered for most of the season, meaning they will get easily outpointed but have an unlikely level of punching power left.
Van: I actually changed my mind on this one only about a hundred times. It sez so right here that the Brownies finally get off the schnide and win a road game. The Jets can be had. All the Browns have to do is get them into a shootout, because the Jets don’t have enough bullets in the holster to compete. If Cleveland gets out to an early lead of like 10-0 or 14-0, it’s over before halftime. If the Jets are leading by some low, baseball-type score, the Brownies lose. I’m taking the Browns to score a bundle in this one.
Indianapolis at Baltimore
Bill’s Pick: Indianapolis
Van’s Pick: Indianapolis
The Colts with a bullet. One of those great big ones they use to hunt blue whales (or, you know, that they would use to hunt blue whales if they did such a thing). The Ravens played their Super Bowl last week against the Patriots, and this short week is not enough time for them to face that the season is still going. The Ravens very nearly conquered Everest, but on the final ascent managed to coach, play, and talk themselves out of going any further. For the record, people who do that on Everest generally die.
Van: The Colts can’t beat the Patriots, and, right now, they might not be able to beat the Cowboys, but they will pimp-slap the taste out of the Ravens’ mouths this weekend. The Colts match up so much better with Baltimore than the Patriots do, because of Joseph Addai. Having him as an ultra-reliable, yard-getting, clock-eating option on the offense will stop Rex Ryan’s Havoc Wreakers from pillaging the offense the way they pillaged New England last weekend, AND the Colts regularly use the no-huddle, which means that the heavy-breathers up front for Baltimore will be gassed before the first Peyton Manning commercial.
Labels: beatdowns in general, Bill Bryan, NFL
posted by van walker | 9:11 PM
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