Week 4 Prognostications...The Bruise Gets Larger

Van: If you have borne with me through the first three weeks of Bill's picks, well, Week 4 needs no introduction...egad...

The definition of dire straits is needing New Orleans to win on Monday night in order to beat Van that week. Wow, does New Orleans suck. Bleah.

Van: Actually, the definition of Dire Straits is Mark Knopfler and a lot of triple-scale union musicians…

Meanwhile, back in Van’s yurt, there’s a party goin’ on. Van and his hot wife are pounding jug after jug of cabbage brandy in celebration of Rex Grossman’s overdue demotion. Careful there, cowboy. It’s even worse on its way back up.

Please check out my website here to read Van’s hallucinations about the coming week.

Van: Last I checked, I’m hallucinating five games better than you at this point…but I digress…

Since I have some catching up to do in this little competition, I feel I must squash Van this week. And so I shall. Maestro?

Houston at Atlanta
Bill’s Pick: Houston
For Michael Vick, life is the unholy union of Morrissey and Ice Cube - Every Day is Like Friday. He ain’t got no job, heaven knows he’s miserable now, and he’s gonna get high today. And high would be a huge step up for the tragically overcaffeinated DeAngelo Hall, who will miss the first half (?!) of this game after single-handedly losing last week’s game. Is it just me, or was Bobby Petrino frightened when Hall accosted him on the sideline last week? If you show up like a little bitch in front of your team, do they keep listening to you? Erm, hey Van, can I use the word “bitch” on our blog? Like, if I have a good reason? Man, I hope so, because I am going to need it for Brian Griese here in a minute. Anyway, Atlanta is a mess and will continue to lose games to better teams until we find a team that isn’t.

Van: (too busy laughing to post a comment) Hey, last I read, the Pope declared that all Protestant blogs aren’t real blogs…it’s what I heard, anyway, so write what you want, dude…

The Jets at Buffalo
Bill’s Pick: The Jets
I have a question. Who on their deeply questionable roster are the Bills paying so much that they are only carrying two quarterbacks? If your starting quarterback is J. P. Losman (no need to commit hara-kiri here, this is only hypothetical, unless you are a Bills fan, in which case go ahead), why do you not see the need for a more thorough contingency plan than rookie Trent Edwards? As long as Losman is shuffling around, wondering what routes his receivers are running, overthrowing guys over the middle and bouncing passes to his checkdown guys, the Bills will continue to lose…but God forbid he gets hurt.

Van: The scary thing is that we know nothing about Trent Edwards, other than his poll-attractive name if he were a candidate. Who knows? This guy might be Dan Marino…or Rex Grossman…such is the crapshoot that is drafting a quarterback.

Baltimore at Cleveland
Bill’s Pick: Baltimore
Ohio is the panacea, the snake oil of the NFL. If you want to regrow hair, fix your blocking scheme, or heal a pulled groin, just go play the Browns or the Bengals. Steve McNair gets to be 26 again, Willis McGahee gets to play at the U one more time, but since the Ravens, with very few exceptions, are not the Bengals, the Browns get no such benefit.

Van: All Derek Anderson did was give Brady Quinn one more week of prep before the Bye…

St. Louis at Dallas
Bill’s Pick: Dallas
Tony Romo is a Jedi. I have no idea what that means, exactly, but my boy Dog says so, and so it must be true. Romo could be an Ewok and the ‘Boys would roll unchecked over the hapless Rams. See, the Rams used to be terrible, but then they lost Steven Jackson. Now they are something worse than terrible and traveling to play what is probably the NFL’s second-best team right now. Dallas is favored by 13, which theoretically means that half of the betting public would take the Rams and the points. I do not know precisely what this means for the next presidential election, but I am moving to New Zealand.

Van: If Tony Romo is a Jedi, then he’s Obi-Wan Kenobi. Obi-Wan single-handedly beat the butts of Darth Maul, General Grievous, and Darth Vader (pre-suit!!)…in fact, in the last one, Obi-Wan is the whole reason Vader even needs the suit. For all that talk about the Skywalker family, Obi-Wan was the baddest of the Jedi.

Chicago at Detroit
Bill’s Pick: Chicago
Now that the Rex Grossman era is over, Bear fans should prepare themselves for their next great Inconvenient Truth: Brian Griese is not very good, either. He will look good for the next four weeks, and then you will find out why he has been cut by three different NFL teams, and why nobody has signed him to compete for a starting job since he got run out of Denver in favor of, seriously, Jake Plummer. Griese is a smart guy, but he has no arm and no balls. OK, I didn’t use “bitch,” but I did use “balls.” Remind me we need to set ground rules for these things, because I may want to use these words again sometime. Right now, da Bears are the team Searching for Trent Dilfer, and they think they have found him, but all they have really managed to do is upgrade from Grossman. Well, that’s something, anyway. This week, the upgrade is enough against a Detroit defense that could not keep Britney Spears out of Princeton.

Van: While I’d agree about Brit-Brit and Princeton, that wounded Bears defense isn’t going to do more than frisk Mo-Town receivers on their way to the end zone…my beloved Bears are awful.

Oakland at Miami
Bill’s Pick: Miami
Miami is at home. Last week I invented some rationale for choosing KC over Minnesota because it did not seem like enough to say that KC would win the battle of the offensive fleas because they were at home. See, everything would have been fine and I would have done it again for this game, but Van had to go and call me out last time, so there’s your analysis. Miami is at home.

Van: Uh, I said the same thing…dang it…

Green Bay at Minnesota
Bill’s Pick: Green Bay
I have a bad feeling about this game, and I wanted to pick the Vikings, but they match up so incredibly poorly against the Packers that I cannot justify it. The Vikings have an incredible run defense – no problem. The Packers cannot run the ball and are not inclined to even try. The Packers have an elite defense. The Vikings have…Adrian Peterson. The Packers could put ten guys in the box and Travairious Jackson would never unravel it. I feel like Minnesota can win this game, but I cannot figure out how.

Van: Minnesota only wins this game if they are playing in one of those Legends Leagues, where the old Purple People Eaters are on defense and Ahmad Rashad hadn’t resigned himself to burying his nose in Michael Jordan’s buttcrack.

Tampa Bay at Carolina
Bill’s Pick: Carolina
Picking this game is like choosing whether or not to accept a free vacation without knowing the destination or your fellow travelers. Maybe you are going to Vermont with your wife to see the fall colors. That’s nice. That’s Jake Delhomme. But maybe you are going to Amarillo with your in-laws for a tour of fast food restaurants. That’s David Carr. Now, I think it is pretty unlikely that Carr starts this game, but I am tempted to turn down the free vacation on the grounds that there is a chance. Both the Bucs and Panthers seem to be growing into their teams as the season goes on, and this is clearly round one of a two round bout to decide the NFC South (for those of us who have come to the painful recognition after three weeks that New Orleans would be hard-pressed to win a game, much less this division). Assuming Delhomme plays, the Panthers win, well, because they are at home.

Van: Tampa Bay’s best receiver is still Joey Galloway. Joey Friggin’ Galloway. Hell, I thought the guy was in WitSec for testifying against Rae Carruth…

Seattle at San Francisco
Bill’s Pick: San Francisco
These are both cities with great culture, wonderful seafood and peculiar weather. They both have superior independent record stores and storied local music scenes. Real estate is absurdly expensive in both places. You have to give the nod to San Francisco for being the superior walking city. And I do not like the Seahawks.

Van: This is why you lose to me every week. Not liking the Seahawks should have nothing to do with picking them when they are the better team. And they are the better team. You might want to note any sideline cameras on Mike Holmgren when he laughs at Darrell Jackson riverdancing through a route.

Pittsburgh at Arizona
Bill’s Pick: Arizona
Far from the friendly rust belt, three time zones away in the oppressive September heat, the Steelers walk in where everybody knows their names. All their names. And tendencies. Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm, purported in-house frontrunners for the Pittsburgh head job that went to Mike Tomlin, now prowl the sidelines for the Cardinals. The Cards have the knowledge and they have the heart. After storming back against the Ravens last week, Arizona gets it, and you can bet that Matt Leinart is on a shorter leash this week after Kurt Warner’s performance last week. Whisenhunt and Grimm can downplay this all they want, but you can bet they have been game-planning the Steelers since June.

Van: They can gameplan like The Belicheat, complete with the Wachowski Brothers filming in I-Max, and it won’t matter at all. They can gameplan like Wile E. Coyote and they still get run over by the train. God’s favorite QB might be Jon Kitna, but it sez so in Leviticus that He hates the Cardinals.

Denver at Indianapolis
Bill’s Pick: Indianapolis
This should be interesting. Nobody has even tried to throw on the Broncos this season. The Bills, Raiders and Jags totaled 58 pass attempts in three games. I am going to go out on a limb and guess that changes this week. Last year, after nibbling for a half, the Colts blew up at Invesco field, exposing a Bronco defense that had been the league’s stingiest. After brutal first-round playoff beatings in 2003 and 2004, the Donkeys re-tooled their entire defense just for the Colts. A perusal of the Broncos’ injury report turns up about half of their secondary. Champ Bailey is healthy, but as the Colts proved last year, it is not that hard to throw to the other side of the field.

Van: Mark it on your calendar – both Bill and I have picked against our teams. Then again, one of us is down five games to the other, and the other is trying to grow that lead. Loyalties fall by the wayside when victory is at stake.

Kansas City at San Diego
Bill’s Pick: San Diego
After a brutal early season tour of the NFL’s best teams, San Diego’s bye week comes early. Green Bay, New England and Chicago have provided three entirely separate blueprints for beating the Bolts (disregarding for the moment that the Bears gacked it up in the final twelve minutes), but the Chefs do not have the personnel to avail themselves of any of these plans. Good thing, too, because if KC had any plan at all and the wherewithal to execute it, Norv Turner would never adjust. A couple of weeks ago, one of the networks showed a bunch of pictures of Norv and his little brother (Chicago offensive coordinator Ron) growing up. Bears and Chargers fans should all be concerned (this means you, Van) because in all of the pictures, from birth to freshman basketball to weddings, they both look completely vacant. It’s weird. I guess I have to say about this game what a lot of people (this means you, Van) said about this season: even Norv can’t screw this up.

Van: What, me worry? I’ve got a QB in Chicago that’s one beer from a relapse and a running back in Chicago that makes me yearn for those halcyon days with Curtis Enis in the backfield…and while San Diego can indeed screw it up, KC can screw it up a lot worse.

Philadelphia at the Giants
Bill’s Pick: Philadelphia
Apparently, I was a week ahead of the curve complaining about throwback uniforms. See, Van, you clowned me and now I am vindicated. Now sports. Even after they finally showed up for a game, I cannot rid my head of the vision of the G-men uniting to quit against the Packers. I thought Donovan and the Iggles were better than they were showing, that they had a competent offense camouflaged by their inability to break 20 points. So on the one hand, they hung 56 points in week three, and on the other it was against the Lions. Without knowing which of the four teams playing this game might show up, you have to return to square one, which is simply that Philly has the superior team. If they both play to their highest capabilities, the Eagles win this by two touchdowns.

Van: Given a choice here, I’d almost rather hit my thumb with a hammer. Twice. And make that a sledgehammer. And let John Henry his own self swing it. If you are the demented sort that reads both Bill’s picks and mine, you’ll note that my metaphor for this game was haggis versus lutefisk. John Henry, swing away…

New England at Cincinnati
Bill’s Pick: New England
I think that Cincinnati can score on New England’s defense and that Carson Palmer can continue to put up absurd numbers, but I also think it will be completely out of necessity. The Bengals defense is just a suggestion. If the Ravens’ defense is a law, the Bengals’ D is a helpful hint. Palmer and Johnson and Houshmanzadeh will get their numbers, but it will be because they are constantly 21 points down.

Van: The Bungle’s defense isn’t even a suggestion as much as it’s a lewd comment to a minor. A first class berth aboard a cruise ship might mistreat guests more than Cincinnati’s defense, but not by much. The Natty’s defense is softer than Cedric Benson, and HE’S softer than the judges on America’s Next Top Model. I mean, this is the joke that keeps on giving, kinda like Kofi Annan’s Scams For (His) Kids…okay, I’m done. So’s Bill, by the way…heh heh heh…

Quick Slants - Week 3

Rex Grossman sucks.

There, my grip on the obvious is as firm as ever.

On Sunday night, in front of God and three other white men, Rex Grossman puked on his jersey.

(For Bill and Marin, that was what we in the English department like to call a metaphor. See, Rex didn't really puke on his jersey, but he played really horribly, AS THOUGH he'd puked on his jersey. Get it?)

And, truth be told, if he'd puked on his jersey it might have taken the attention away from that vomit-inducing stat line of his.

How bad? Joey Harrington (!!) outperformed him. By a mile. Harrington completed 70% of his passes in a real football game against men who were trying to knock the fashion sense out of him.

Grossman, on the other hand, couldn't complete 70% of his passes in a drill.

Speaking of drills and getting drilled, that thud you heard was the Lions falling back to earth in Philly. Maybe it was Donovan McNabb doing what the great ones do, responding to criticism by playing lights-out, or (more likely) it was the blindingly-ugly throwups, er, throwbacks that the Eagles were wearing, but boy-oh-boy the Eagles got well in a hurry.

So, uh, how's that whole Norv Turner thing working out in San Diego?

The guy is a disaster as a head coach...we get that. What we don't get is that this guy is way more than competent as an offensive coordinator, and he gets God's own running back in LaDainian Tomlinson, and yet arch-conservative Marty Schottenheimer was a LOT better at getting LT pointed north-and-south than Ol' Norv is...

The Belicheat has gotten Tom Brady and Randy Moss on the same page...sheeesh...the way those two are playing right now, The Belicheat could fax his game plan to the other team's defense and it would still be like the Coyote's parasol under an avalanche.

This just in - the feds are on the steroid case. Big time. As I write this, news is breaking of a major drug bust that encompassed several different countries, including the good ol' U.S. of A., and resulted in the seizure of millions of dollars of 'roids and HGH and the like...and names.

Lots and lots of names.

Hundreds of thousands of names, the reports kept saying. Hundreds of thousands.

One civic-minded district attorney in New York State found a handful of big-name pro athletes when he aggressively investigated one crooked doctor's office in Florida.

How many athletes in how many sports are about to get outed now?

Paraphrasing Morpheus, we're about to find out how deep the rabbit hole goes.

Kansas City sleepwalked to victory over Minnesota thanks to a really bad replay call. In other news, pocket lint will have as much effect on this season as the result of this game.

Say this much for Houston: yes, they really miss Andre Johnson, but no, they didn't quite roll over and die for the undefeated Super Bowl champs.

And say this much for Indy: The Only Colt Who Really Matters wasn't too pleased with the victory. And that's a good thing if you're a Colt fan...heck, it's a good thing if you like good football, because the truly great ones are never satisfied with merely winning, but with total domination. The Colts didn't dominate, and Peyton Manning wasn't happy about it.

AFC Championship Game, Round 1: November 4, New England at Indianapolis.

AFC Championship Game, Round 2: Whoever wins Round 1 will likely host Round 2 in the playoffs.

And if it weren't for the fact that Indy and New England play each other in the regular season, we might have had two undefeated teams this season.

As it is, these two won't be chasing the ghosts of the '72 Dolphins as much as home field advantage throughout the playoffs...and it might take running the table to get it done this season.

On the other end of the spectrum, Jacksonville finally won a game. Now there are only five teams left in the 0-16 derby, with the winless Saints yet to play the Tennessee Titans. As difficult as it is to go undefeated, it may be even more difficult to go winless. In the Super Bowl era (not counting the strike season of 1982), only the legendary Tampa Bay Suckaneers managed to keep their zero unblemished for an entire season.

In the same era, 14 other teams, most recently Carolina in 2001, have managed to win only 1 game all season.

It sez so right here that the Falcons go the distance without a win. They got a great game from Joey Harrington and they still lost. If the Falcons can't win when Joey Ballgame is having Joe Montana flashbacks, they have a snowflake's chance in Satan's zip code of winning when he's playing to his historical (read: bad) form.

There's been a Ronnie Brown sighting in Miami, which means we can take the roadblocks down now...

Before the season started, I liked the Bears to go 13-3. At this rate, they'll go 3-13...

But I can take some solace in the fact that Bronco fans are contemplating jumping off ski lifts after their beloved Orange got Crushed by Jacksonville (snicker).

Hey, don't think I'm done flagellating myself over that sickening Bears loss, especially when I haven't even addressed the running back debacle. See, the current guy, Cedric Benson, is soft. SOFT. Johnny Mathis soft. NASA-approved foam cushioning for mattresses soft. Jell-O Pudding soft.

The guy the Bears traded, Thomas Jones, is not soft. He ran like a man looking to start trouble in the Jets victory this weekend; wherever the biggest guys were, Jones ran right at them and knocked them over.

Benson, on the other hand, ran like a co-ed in a panty raid, all screaming and giggly and in circles hoping someone might catch him, which they did all afternoon.

Between Grossman completing more passes to the other team than to one of his starting wideouts (or tight ends, for that matter) and Benson running like a block of quartz in a box, the Bears offense is truly offensive.

...and I'm OUT like half the Bears defense...gaaaaaah...

Week 3 Prognostications - You Do The Math

Van: Once again, Bill's picks are only offered for entertainment purposes...or, in the case of this week's picks, for morbid curiosity...and I'm still four games up! People who like money can find my picks here.

Scientology works. At least better than whatever I did in week one. After Van scraped together a tie with an unwatchable Monday night win, he is feverishly looking anywhere for inspiration to avoid the unavoidable tsunami of knowledge I am building.

Van: Dude, quit stealing from Hedley LaMarr of “Blazing Saddles” fame…

Meanwhile, no more scientology for me. I want whatever Jon Kitna’s drinking.

Ahem…roll the beatdown.

Arizona at Baltimore
Bill’s Pick: Baltimore
You know when you’re grilling chicken, it gets to be that appetizing light tan color, so you cut into it to make sure you aren’t poisoning your family and it’s that weird translucent, iridescent color in the middle? You know what that means? Your chicken isn’t ready. Neither are the Cardinals. Although Matt Leinart has suffered only a single sack, that is illusion. The Cardinals’ run-blocking has been legitimately fine, but their pass-blocking remains horrific. Leinart has spent his first two games trying to pass out of a pocket the size of a wine glass, and sixty minutes in Baltimore should expose the truth.

Van: I haven’t seen a backpedal this fine since ol’ Neon Deion was patrolling passing lanes a decade or so ago. All of a sudden, Arizona ain’t “all that.” Imagine that. Not like I haven’t been calling them a fraud all season or anything, mind you…

St. Louis at Tampa Bay
Bill’s Pick: Tampa Bay
I have no basis to pick this game at all. The fact is that I have not seen a minute of a Tampa Bay game this year – bad teams from other hemispheres just don’t get a lot of air time in the Mountain Time Zone. The weird thing is that I have barely seen highlights of the first two Bucs games. This is like living in the 80’s again, when I knew James Wilder’s stats backward and forward and was totally convinced that e was one of my favorite players, but had never actually seen him play. At all. Ever. Here is what I know from context clues, and you can tell me if I am wrong: the Bucs are better than the sum of their parts. Jeff Garcia, Joey Galloway, Cadillac Williams…not that good. I am not sure who is playing defense, but I can see that I counted out Monte Kiffin too soon. Meanwhile, the Rams suck. They should not, but they do. Any week now, they might turn it around, but the prudent gentleman gambler will not play them until they do. As always, I will controvert my own philosophy later in this edition.

Van: You took a lot of time away from good people to say that Chucky avoids the axe this week; you should be ashamed.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh
Bill’s Pick: Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is playing really well, Roethlisberger looks way better than ever before and the Tomlin era is going great. That’s great. Cheers. What was up with the Steelers’ god-awful throwback unis? San Diego puts on those sweet Lance Alworth powder blues with the number on the helmet and deludes the rest of the league into thinking this is a good idea. The Broncos should leave the vertically-striped socks in the closet and the Steelers should leave their past buried as well. The White Sox never wear shorts. Do you think the 2034 Vikings are going to wear whizzinators?

Van: See, this is what I’ve always suspected: that a fashionista lurks beneath that football exterior. I mean, not that anything’s wrong with it, you know, don’t ask, don’t tell and all that, but when the only criticism you can level is at color schemes and cod-pieces, well, the gay-dar goes to Threat Level Orange just to be safe…

Detroit at Philadelphia
Bill’s Pick: Detroit
Dear Philadelphia: shut up. No, seriously, shut the hell up. Your backup quarterback is Kevin Kolb. I don’t even have to elucidate which Kevin Kolb I am talking about, because every Kevin Kolb on the planet Earth is equally prepared to play quarterback in the NFL right now. Besides, you have bigger problems. This week, you have a game against God. Up to this point, God had never shown any affection for the city of Detroit, then all-of-a-sudden-like, BOOM, he heals Jon Kitna. Jon is HEEEEALED. Jesus’ blessing is upon Detroit. Finally. And Old Testaments curses are on Minneapolis, I guess. Not being a theologian (at least not like Kitna or Reverend Applewhite), I cannot tell you exactly what it takes to beat God, but Philly probably needs a healthy Bryan Westbrook, and they do not have one.

Van: You want theology? Check John Calvin vs. Jacob Arminius (Calvin won that one 5-0, and it wasn’t that close)…or perhaps Augustine vs. Pelagius (again, blowout of Church-changing proportions). You want spelling? Check NFL.com, where, last I heard, the Eagles were hoping that BRIAN Westbrook would help the offense. And, for the record, he won’t…because an atrophied Donovan McNabb is still the QB until he’s irretrievably broken. And the sooner the better, for the familially-challenged Andy Reid…

Miami at the Jets
Bill’s Pick: Miami
Trent Green woke up last week and found himself in a warm climate with an offensive-minded coach and some actual receivers. Chad Pennington will wake up this week with a bad wheel and his generation’s best pass rusher in town. Who would you rather be?

Van: I’d rather be myself, with a 4-game (and growing) cushion over the junior varsity…

Buffalo at New England
Bill’s Pick: New England
Do you really need an explanation for why the Pats beat the Bills at home?

Van: That’s just lazy, dude…all of three people read my blog, and you’ve disrespected all of them. The good news is that your sister will pimp-slap you at Thanksgiving, to the sound of applause. My own sister will read this and not realize that she took a beating until the swelling starts to rise underneath her eye…heh heh heh…

Minnesota at Kansas City
Bill’s Pick: Kansas City
This is a matchup of marquee offenses showcasing their first ballot quarterbacks, Damon Huard and Tavrereous Jackson. Jackson has a better line, Huard has a better running back, and in a special promotion celebrating the one hundred twenty-eighth year of football in this country, I, William L. Bryan, will be the number one wide receiver for both teams. I will personally attempt to do what no other receiver has done this year, which is to stop these noble quarterbacks’ throws before they get either to the other team or to the grass. The Chefs get the nod because LJ can play any position better than anyone on the Vikings’ offense except Steve Hutchinson.

Van: Stop it. You picked KC because they were at home, just like I did. I just have the bolss to admit it.

Indianapolis at Houston
Bill’s Pick: Indianapolis
Houston is one Andre Johnson knee sprain away from winning this game. Johnson offered to make both Matt Schaub and David Carr look good, the difference being that Schaub accepted. This is a better Texan team than the one that beat the Colts at Reliant in Week 16 last year. As much attention as Schaub has received (much of it for not being Michael Vick), the stars of this show are the Texan defenders. As much praise as I care to lavish upon Houston, the 2007 edition is crippled without the quick-strike capability that Johnson gave them. Expect a lot of guys in the box, a lot of blitzing and a lot of press coverage from the Colts, and expect a pretty fair measuring stick for the Houston D.

Van: Something to consider: try reading a NEWSPAPER before writing. The only people still counting on the possibility that Andre Johnson will play are the hyper-paranoids on Indianapolis’ defensive coaching staff, a group that might not have taken Lavrentiy Beria for being a little too loose-lipped…egad…

San Diego at Green Bay
Bill’s Pick: San Diego
Any boost the Packers accepted from last week’s play date with the G-Men is self-delusion. Until the Giants quit in the third quarter (oh, and they did quit), the Packers offense struggled, just as they did in week one against an Eagles team whose defense is also suspect. The 38 points the Patriots hung on the Bolts are not indicative of the Packers’ abilities. All that said, I am a little concerned about San Diego, and particularly their leadership. With exceptional leaders Junior Seau, Drew Brees and Marty Schottenheimer all gone in the past couple of years, who points this team in the right direction? I bought Norv Turner (albeit at a deep discount), but no I am suffering some buyer’s remorse.

Van: Green Bay plays the varsity this weekend…and gets properly wedgie’d for their cheek…

Cincinnati at Seattle
Bill’s Pick: Cincinnati
All of Cincinnati watched through their fingers as the Bengals’ defense settled all of its unanswered questions from week one by running around the field naked performing show tunes and forgetting choreography. The good news is that their O ran wild over the very slightly less helpless Browns D, effectively announcing a season-long track meet. Fun to watch, but it’s never too early to write them in for an ignominious first-round playoff loss to a team who, you know, runs the ball and plays defense. Expect Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander and Deion Branch to look rejuvenated, cavorting like football is fun again, but do not expect them to be quite fast enough to beat Carson Palmer and company in the day’s final heats. This week, Van and I will be playing to see who gets to be the Bengals’ defensive coordinator next week.

Van: What Bill didn’t tell you is that the LOSER gets to be the Bengals’ defensive coordinator against the signal-stealing Patriots next weekend. I’d tell you what the winner gets to do, but modesty prevents. Suffice it to say that it begins with insulting Bill a fourth time (to paraphrase the Fronch knnnnnnigit of Holy Grail fame)…and, well, that might be enough.

Cleveland at Oakland
Bill’s Pick: Oakland
This is a matchup of the two teams that showed us the most in week two. The Raidas have heart, something we have been unable to say until Gruden jumped ship, and the Browns have…something. 51 points is a lot. I have to consult my sister for sure, but it is at least an assload, all greater designations being unprintable. Even after you deduct reasonable percentages for flukiness and a horrid defense, it is still a ton of points. Oakland’s defense is a lot tougher than Cincinnati’s, and with each passing week, Daunte Culpepper is closer to being ready to play. For some reason, I watch Lamont Jordan and think he can play and nobody else does. I am willing to accept that I am wrong, as opposed to everybody else (because that would be arrogant), but I still think it. I will take heart and a steady running game over an inexplicable one week explosion, but the truly remarkable thing here is that I actually want to watch this game. By the way, isn’t it time the Browns stopped wearing their throwback uniforms, too?

Van: HAH! The truth comes out! NOW I know how the Guy That Couldn’t Shoot Straight tied me last weekend…he’s consulting his sister. (Sisssster…Obi Wan was wise to hide her from me. Now his failure is complete. If you won’t turn to the Dark Side, then perhaps she will…)

Jacksonville at Denver
Bill’s Pick: Denver
It may be time to admit the Jags look awful. It might be unfair to place it all at the feet of their petty and vindictive head coach, but maybe not. Jack Del Rio is the only guy in America who thinks David Garrard is better than Byron Leftwich, Fred Taylor is better than Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ernest Wilford is better than Reggie Williams. As a former linebacker, is it possible he cannot develop or deploy offensive talent? Or perhaps that he has a weird, Jungian, imbedded hatred of offense generally? Meanwhile, the Broncos will struggle to their third straight get well game. What happens when our heroes play a decent team, maybe one who regularly slaps them around like Harvey Keitel in Taxi Driver? Stay tuned as they travel to Indianapolis in Week Four.

Van: (Col: Why do you have ‘born to kill’ on your helmet, and a peace symbol on your body armor? Private Joker: Sir…I don’t know, sir. Col: Son, you better get your head and your ass wired together, or I will take a giant sh*t on you. Private Joker: Sir, I was making a statement about the duality of man. Col: What? Private Joker: You know, the Jungian thing, sir. Col: You really need to stop listening to Bill Bryan. He may be the only man in this hemisphere capable of misspelling “embedded” and misusing “Jungian” in the same sentence. Stick with me, son. Help the good guys. Shoot the bad guys. And pick the winner like we were paying you to use fewer words.)

The Giants at Washington
Bill’s Pick: Washington
Dear Mr. Mara: fire Tom Coughlin. Do it now. No NFL team has quit like your boys did since the 2002 New Orleans Saints, and Tom Benson had to watch Jim Haslett coach a very talented football team to a 19-29 record in three more seasons before determining that he was not the guy. I always figured Haslett had pictures of Benson and the goat. Put down the goat, Mr. Mara. Do not give in to petty blackmail. Your guys did not quit on Coughlin, don’t get that twisted, but neither did Coughlin keep them from quitting. Nobody wants to go 0-16. Fire Coughlin now.

Van: Wanting to go 0-16 and actually going 0-16 have NOTHING to do with each other, and the G-Men are doing everything in their power to take the old Suckaneers off the SHNIDE…not to rub anything in, you understand…

Carolina at Atlanta
Bill’s Pick: Carolina
Joey Harrington looked OK last week. Is this the newly competent Harrington we saw in preseason or the bumbling Jags’ D we saw in week one? Ask me again next week. Meanwhile, Carolina shuffles around with their usual early season indifference. We have this buddy, The Walrus, for whom picking up women is so simple as to be uninteresting, so he handicaps himself. Rather than beginning a conversation at ground level, he digs himself a hole to see if he can get out of it and then get the girl to go home with him. For instance, he might approach a woman and tell her that her outfit makes her look fat, and then try to pick her up. Such is the Panther Way. Anybody can go 13-3 and get to the playoffs, but it’s a lot more titillating to start 2-6 and then see if you can make the playoffs.

Van: First it’s color schemes. Now, it’s The Walrus. What are you really trying to say, Bill? Really? I mean, I’m there for ya, but, like Eddie Murphy said, after the game I’m gonna have the beer…

Dallas at Chicago
Bill’s Pick: Chicago
Chicago and their JV backfield had better duck. Da Bears get the nod by virtue of playing in Soldier Field, but in matchup terms, the ‘Boys have more edges here than a ninja star. Tony Romo and his offensive line have done a superior job the first two weeks of creating and using great big airstrip-looking passing lanes, and while they will find Tommie Harris harder to move than a gun safe (if you’ve ever tried, you know), this is where the Bears miss cuddly ole Tank Johnson. If Dallas wants to win, they had better not expect great things from some of the slow-developing plays they have been running, but they have most of what they need to go into Chitown and steal one.

Van: This is a classic liberal Democrat, Hilary Clinton-Rodham flip-flop. You vote FOR Chicago, but only AFTER giving every possible reason to vote for Dallas. (Senator John Kerry: “I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it.”) This way, no matter who wins, you can try to spin the sound-bite of your choice and appeal to the middle. (Chicago wins? Oh, yes, I picked them. Dallas wins? You’ll remember that I said yada yada yada Ninja throwing stars yada yada yada…)

Tennessee at New Orleans
Bill’s Pick: New Orleans
I realize this looks more like dogmatic fever than football analysis, but the fact is that I cannot see anything wrong with New Orleans and I know exactly what is wrong with Tennessee. This is not to say that the Ain’ts have been anything short of ludicrous, I just cannot say why (I mean, their O-line can’t play dead, I get that, but they should be able to). The Tuxedoes have too many eggs in one basket – Vince giveth and Vince taketh away. Vince pulls out his stuff and clanks all the way down the field, leading a heroic charge only to throw a mind-numbing interception or take a childish penalty to set the whole thing aflame. My confusion buys New Orleans one more week on the dole. They get the benefit of the doubt that the Rams do not because I am capricious, unreliable and inconsistent. By the way, in 2000 I got 12 Saints games wrong. It got to be like that scene from Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead where they’re flipping coins, winner keeps it, it comes up heads 860 times in a row but the guy who is losing keeps guessing tails because it has to be eventually.

Van: You’re just wrong. Take your medicine like a man, because you’re just wrong. It only took you 200 words to be wrong, but who’s to stop a man from putting six bullets into the revolver and volunteering to play Russian roulette first? Like John Creasy said, the bullet never lies…

Quick Slants - Week 2

Derek Anderson?

Left for dead after the weekend: New Orleans, St. Louis, Buffalo, New York Giants, Atlanta, Miami, Oakland, Kansas City, New York Jets, and Philadelphia.

Only the 1993 Cowboys (Emmitt Smith holdout) and the 2001 Patriots (Tom Brady replaces an obviously concussed Drew Bledsoe) started a season 0-2 and won a Super Bowl, and of the previous list of losers, only the Saints could turn things around with 14 games left on the schedule.

That said, you just can’t lose to Tampa Bay and expect to be considered a contender.

Derek Anderson?

Early surprises at 2-0 include Green Bay, Detroit, Houston, and San Francisco…however, full disclosure demands that I dispense with my customary modesty and state plainly that I expected big things from both Houston and San Francisco (it sez so right here), so count me among the not-so-surprised.

And as far as Green Bay and Detroit go, I’ll be more impressed with them when I see them against the varsity. The Houston Texans beat Carolina at Carolina (thanks for the globe, Bill…jerk…), and that counts as impressive any way you slice it. Detroit has beaten Oakland and Minnesota, and one would be hard pressed to make up one good team out of the two of them. As for Green Bay, their victories over the corpses in Philly and New York (NFC) ought to count as forfeits.

Derek Anderson?

The way the Bears play, their offense ought to be considered special teams, because they basically stay on the field long enough to give Devin Hester and the defense a breather.

Speaking of which…

Memo to the NFL: DO NOT KICK THE BALL TO DEVIN HESTER. Unless your coverage team includes Pietro Maximoff and Barry Allen (comic book references!), you will NOT catch him. The two fastest guys I’d ever seen on a football field were Deion Sanders and Michael Vick, and Hester is easily in that class of speed burner, period.

And not to gush, but how many times have we watched a game and seen the kick returner dance around indecisively or, worse, make the wrong cut when the right one seemed so obvious to those of us not being chased by ten angry men at full speed? When Hester makes his cut, he makes it once, and always for wherever there’s nothing between him and the end zone but air and opportunity.

And if you’re Herm Edwards, and Hester has been running sprints past your defense all afternoon, you are guilty of being under the influence of Belichick-ian arrogance or weapons-grade stupid for kicking the ball anywhere in Hester’s zip code.

Derek Anderson?

Yes, faithful reader, I do seem to be backpedaling a bit on some teams…but don’t get it twisted; Tampa Bay only won last weekend because the Trousers of Time got twisted and an alternate reality manifested itself on our plane of existence…and we’re just lucky it was the one where they won, because there was another one where they were moving to score a touchdown when everyone in the stadium turned into werewolves and the Lycanthrope Holocaust began…

You know that I’ve been giving Houston all sorts of man-love this season. Now we’ll see what kind of team they have, because all-stud WR Andre Johnson has a sprained knee. I like the Texans to rise up above this and not tank like the Panthers do when their best receiver inevitably breaks something.

And there ain’t anything wrong with Dallas. Yes, they haven’t beaten anyone of note. Yes, their defense remains somewhat suspect. But this is a team that has scored 82 points in their first two games, and all of it at will. Yes, New England and Indianapolis look strong early, but if the Cowboys can get anything going defensively, they might make real trouble. (And if I say “Yes” again, I win the Marv Albert Memorial Cliché Trophy! YES!)

Just a thought: free agent defensive tackle Tank Johnson will become eligible after Week 8…and he and the Cowboys have been seen passing notes to each other during Study Hall…I wonder how much of an effect he might have in the middle of a playoff run for what looks like a surefire contender in the NFC?

Derek Anderson?

Sometimes, I’m so good it’s scary…remember me saying something about Jay Cutler providing a lot of excitement last weekend, and some of it unintended? I know of a Bronco fan who will publicly remind everyone that The Ol’ Horsetoothed Used Car Salesman His Own Self was capable of making the same stupid play in the fourth quarter that Cutler made…and that it was only when Elway got really old that he stopped shooting himself in his pigeon-toed feet.

Yes, Denver won, and yes (thanks, Marv), they are 2-0. But Bronco fans had better watch their games with some Pepto Bismol handy…

You are Mike Holmgren, grand poobah of all things football in Seattle. You have a very good quarterback in place, a decent-to-good defense, and a franchise running back in place. You even took this team to the Super Bowl recently. But it sez so right here that you can’t lose to Arizona early, not this season, not ever, and expect to contend.

I’ll call it the Curse of the Cardinals: any team that loses to the Cardinals in the first two games of the season will not win that season’s championship, period. And yes (thanks, Marv), you can look it up.

Derek Anderson?

Okay, okay, I’ll finally talk about it.

It’s Saturday, and you tell Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis that his Bengals will hang 45 on Cleveland. If it’s live t.v., or if there’s a reporter within a hundred miles of that conversation, he denies it vigorously and says all the right things about respecting an opponent and yada yada yada.

If we had a camera in his heart, he’d be smirking, “45? ONLY 45? Yeah, I could see that…if I called the dogs off in the third quarter…”

It’s Tuesday. The Bengals hung 45 on Cleveland and LOST. And you want to know what has been repeating through ol’ Marv’s muddled head for the last 48 hours?

Derek Anderson?

Derek By-God Anderson?

That's why we love the NFL: blind squirrels and random acorns...

…and I’m OUT like Donovan McNabb in about two weeks…

Yes!

Week 2 Prognostications...Bill Gets Spanked Again

Van: You'd think that after the beating Bill took last weekend (me: 12-4, Bill: 8-8) that he'd have learned his lesson, but nooooo, he's right back for some more. Some guys never learn...

Congratulations. Very nice, Van. You won Secretary’s Week.

Week One in the NFL is historically a mess, a week you can look back on at the end of the season and wonder how it happened. For those of you with an office pool, who won? Was it the former linebacker or the roto-geek? Nope. It was the woman who swore off football when Kenny Stabler retired, the woman who wonders why L.A. is not playing this week, the woman who picks her favorite cities, the woman who asked you, “What color are Tennessee’s uniforms?” Yup. Secretary’s Week.

Van: What? The sun was in your eyes? You didn’t know it was flaxseed oil? You had no idea what your cousin was doing at your house? Yada. Yada. Yada.

So enjoy it, Mr. Walker, but welcome back to this planet. I’m afraid you will find it different than you left it.

To view Van’s fantastical Week Two notions, along with my always very rational refutations, please visit my website here.

Houston at Carolina
Bill’s Pick: Carolina
Houston’s week one victory only means that they can beat one of the NFL’s worst teams at home. Until they prove something, anything, we must assume that they still unprepared to beat a playoff-caliber team on the road. The Panthers’ resurgent defense shut down Steven Jackson, so 52 year-old Ahman Green should not present a lot of challenge.

Van: The Panthers shut down Steven Jackson because the Rams O-line is broken. St. Louis is a fraud. Matt Schaub continues to twist the knife in Rich McKay’s gut as Houston pulls of what should not be considered an upset.

Cincinnati at Cleveland
Bill’s Pick: Cincinnati
In order to get revenge on Pittsburgh for their week one whacking, Cleveland cleverly traded away their starting quarterback. In chess, this tactic would have a name, like “The Al Davis Gambit” or “The Complete Dumbass Maneuver.” Did you see Phil Savage protest too much about how they are actually trying to win games? Cincinnati is coming off of a huge Monday Night win that answered absolutely nothing about their team. Can their defense stop a team that does not regularly hand them the ball for no reason? This would have been a trap, a great opportunity for a Cleveland upset, but Phil Savage had to try to recreate his great Lawyer Milloy victory of 2003. The difference is that the Browns are not a winner, not champions, and they will be at least to Saturday walk-throughs before they can keep anything in their heads but “what the hell was that?” The Browns’ season is doomed.

Van: This one’s so obvious, even Bill couldn’t mess it up…Travis Henry and his nine kids by nine different women could beat the Browns right now.

Atlanta at Jacksonville
Bill’s Pick: Jacksonville
After playing the submissive for Tennessee’s running game, the Jags get a week back in the lab to figure out what they did wrong and then a scrimmage against the I-AA Falcons to test it all out. Last week was one of those famous, weird first week outliers; unfortunately, after bullying the clueless Falcons, the Jags will enter week three still having no idea who they are.

Van: The Falcons have been circling the drain since April…and we already know who the Jags are: a bottom-tier team in what we thought was a top-loaded conference.

Green Bay at The Giants
Bill’s Pick: Green Bay
The G-Men flashed both style and substance before falling to the ‘Boys last week, and although I believe they are a better team than the Packers, and although I like them at home, the Giant quarterback question has no answer. The worst idea in Tom Coughlin’s bountiful stash of bad ideas is to start Eli Manning with a separated throwing shoulder. Brian Griese played most of a season in that condition in Denver, and the savvy football fan learned that a passing game that only extends eight yards down the field is easy to defend. The second worst idea is starting Jared Lorenzen. It may have escaped your attention, but Lorenzen is fat. Big and fat. Goofy fat. He may be down from the reported 320 he weighed at Kentucky, but he is still fat. Maybe that’s okay, because there is really no precedent (guys like Billy Kilmer, who played in the Pleistocene era, do not count), but I am guessing it is not. I am guessing we are about to find out there is a reason that there are no fat NFL quarterbacks. I want to take the Giants, but see no way around their quarterback, whoever he is, losing them a game here.

Van: Fat QB Precedent, Modern Era: Jim Miller, Steelers and Bears. There may have been nothing funnier than Miller, with a body built by copious amount of suds, getting busted for steroids when he was a Bear.

Buffalo at Pittsburgh
Bill’s Pick: Pittsburgh
It’s tough to play in Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh looked great last week and Buffalo did not and I am sure we all agree on this game. So naturally, I do not want to talk about this game. Surely, everyone has been following the Kevin Everett story. Since you have been following this, you know that Bills owner Ralph Wilson has pumped millions of dollars into spinal cord injury research and had the team and medical staff prepared for such an injury. Wilson is a model of positive karma, but more importantly, shouldn’t he be running FEMA?

Van: Two encouraging things to take from this story: one, Everett was able to respond to his mother’s touch. With every report of his extremities moving, I get more and more hopeful. Two, as Bill rightly pointed out, we may now have the blueprint for reacting quickly to spinal cord injuries, not just on the football field, but everywhere. As far as FEMA, there’s nothing wrong with FEMA. Kanye West told us that FEMA works; it's just that Bush hates black people, and if Kanye West said it, it must be true, right?

San Francisco at St. Louis
Bill’s Pick: St. Louis
It might be some kind of weird optical illusion from being on the field with the Cardinals, but the Niners’ defense looked positively competent in week one. Here is a vote for the Cardinal Effect (a corollary to the Raider Effect). When San Fran steps on the field with a veteran offense, they will have the valuable opportunity to gauge their real-life improvement, and I am guessing it is not enough. Do not expect Steven Jackson to lay low for long.

Van: Steven Jackson won’t lay low for long. He’ll get knocked down behind the line of scrimmage, get back up, go to his huddle, get his number called, get the ball, and get knocked down again behind the line of scrimmage because of that giant, gaping hole where Orlando Pace used to be. It’ll be close for a while, until the Rams defense gets tired, then the Niners pull away.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Bill’s Pick: New Orleans
OK, so I was wrong about the Saints last week. Really, really wrong. Rather than learning as civilized beings do, I am going to stubbornly repeat my mistakes until I get the law of averages eventually makes me right. It’s not so much insane as…subsane. I am a little bearish on Seattle, but I was still puzzled that Tampa hung with them as well as they did. While Tampa will definitely win games this year, they are on the short list of teams for whom I can see no reason to win any.

Van: The Ashes Formerly Known As Jason David provide the only real counterpoint to the Patriot Games scandal in New England; David was a Colt for three seasons who practiced against Reggie Wayne every week. He knew what was coming and he still had no answer for it. That said, there is still no excuse for cheating…or for picking a Saints team on the road against a Super Bowl participant. Did you learn nothing from the butt-kicking Chicago put on them last season in the NFC Title Game?

Indianapolis at Tennessee
Bill’s Pick: Indianapolis
I am on record as not believing in Vince and the Titans, but more importantly I will be picking Indianapolis until further notice. I know a beatdown when I see one.

Van: Just like a bad gambler, you’re chasing a bad bet with a worse one. You didn’t pick the Colts in what was a gimme, but now you’re standing behind them in a game that no wiseguy would touch with your money. Come Monday morning, the talking heads will all wonder if the Colts are a mirage after this loss.

Seattle at Arizona
Bill’s Pick: Arizona
The Cardinals looked grittier Monday night than they have…maybe ever. Both their defense and running game showed up for a game, which would be a major victory for new head guy Ken Whisenhunt if he was not a purported offensive genius. While all that has ever been wrong with the Cards looked great, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin may or may not have even played. Now that Arizona is actually selling tickets, they have a chance to try out their new home-field advantage.

Van: Last week it was Atlanta, a pick which automatically qualifies you for bi-weekly, unannounced urinalysis. Now you’re picking Arizona. ARIZONA. Their offensive line couldn’t block your sinuses. And unless you’ve forgotten the Oakland lesson of last season, your best lineman should be wearing a helmet and not a headset. The only way O-line coach Russ Grimm helps this team is if he suits up and calls the rest of the Hogs back into action because these guys could be replaced by orange traffic cones without any discernible difference in the offense.

Minnesota at Detroit
Bill’s Pick: Detroit
After games against Atlanta and Oakland, respectively, do we know anything about either of these teams? While I find it criminal that I have to choose between them, the Lions get the nod because Tavaris Jackson is still the Minnesota signal caller.

Van: Detroit is an urban wasteland of corruption and crime, from the incompetent mayor to the Road Warrior-like gangs south of 8 Mile…and the whole city will be arm in arm singing “We Are The World” when the Lions win this Sunday. Let ‘em have it; reality will come crashing in soon enough…like, say, Sept. 30, when the Bears take their lunch money.

Dallas at Miami
Bill’s Pick: Dallas
The ‘Boys offense was awesome against the passable Giant defense and Miami’s offense was completely lost against last season’s 31st-ranked defense. Since the team who scores the most points typically wins NFL games, this should be easy.

Van: Let’s see: the Fish Guts gave Jimmy Johnson his golden parachute into retirement, and gave Nick Saban another line to add to the resume he faxed to Alabama right after training camp broke last season. But hope is on the horizon: 100 year old Ricky Williams has applied for reinstatement…

The Jets at Baltimore
Bill’s Pick: Baltimore
This is completely absurd. It speaks volumes about the depths to which I do not believe in the Jets that I am picking the Ravens’ second team to beat them. With Steve McNair and Ray Lewis likely out this week, and possibly many weeks to come, my Super Bowl pick looks decidedly less super, but still superer than the Jets.

Van: You should have abandoned ship last week. The Ravens are broker than Mike Tyson. The Ravens are broker than Kevin Federline. The Ravens are so broke, they can’t afford free speech. The J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets come into this game healthy, at least for the moment…I mean, their coach ratted out a Jersey guy. How long do you think it’ll be before the Man-genius ends up as one more face on a milk carton?

Kansas City at Chicago
Bill’s Pick: Chicago
To take a line from Van’s repertoire – OH…MY…GOD. I do not like the Chiefs, Sam I Am. I will not take them on the road, I will not take them with a toad, I will not take them with the line, I will not take them any time. They suck, Sam I Am. If the Chefs score, this is a moral victory. Likewise, if Rexy cannot take this chance to get off the schneid (how do you spell schneid?), the Bears would be better off admitting that Brian Griese is the better quarterback now than in three months’ time.

Van: I’d go with S-H-N-I-D-E myself…or Earl Scheib…or Alysheba…or Alyssa Milano…ANYways, yes, Rex needs to get off of one of them…

Oakland at Denver
Bill’s Pick: Denver
Unsure as I was about last week, I can take the Donkeys with a clear conscience this week. Fly, Donkeys, get well. By the way, since Evil Al signed JaMarcus Russell, the Raiders are finally on the clock for next year.

Van: I like this game as a real confidence-builder for Jay Cutler after last week’s Houdini impression. As much as pulling one out of your nether regions still counts in the left column, a sound and thorough beating of the benighted Raiders will go a long way to letting the kid know he’s here to stay. It wouldn’t surprise me at all, given the whole Mike-Shanahan-Mike-Lombardi-We-Just-Hate-The-Raiders-Because-They’re-The-Raiders thing, if Shanahan lets this one get to 50 before calling off the troops.

San Diego at New England
Bill’s Pick: New England
I have no earthly idea who will win this game. If this game is in San Diego, the Chargers win, but New England has this weird home field advantage. It’s almost like they know what the other team is going to run. OK, that was cheap (which is not to guarantee that I will not do it again), but much like last week’s Chargers-Bears game (this year’s Chargers schedule brought to you by Idi Amin and Papa Doc Duvalier), we just do not know enough about this year’s iteration of these teams to know what will happen.

Van: New England wins going away, because they are still stealing signs. What, you really think they were dumb enough to have a guy standing on the sideline with a camera? With the technology available today? The guy that was caught was the fall guy. Belichick knew that the Man-genius would rat him out the first chance he got, so he set Mangini up. The real camera man is sitting about two rows up from the team bench, at midfield, with a Fujifilm MX-1700 miniature digital camera and zoom lens (with 200 line-pair resolution) fire-wired to his Sony VGN U-70 mini-laptop, sending MPEG-4 video (for clarity) in encrypted bursts (industry-standard 128 bit, unbreakable except by the brute-force 30-node parallel-thinking monster computers of the NSA) to the dedicated server in the home team locker room for decrypting and dissemination at halftime. And everything I’ve just described, encryption technology included, (except Deep Blue, of course) can be had for less than the cost of a really bad used car…not that I condone cheating or anything, but it can be done a lot less obviously than having some knucklehead standing on the sideline like Cecil B. DeMille and cranking on a two-reeler from under a tarp…

Washington at Philadelphia
Bill’s Pick: Philadelphia
Illadelph gets well and the Redskins snap back to reality. I do not see this game being a lot of fun to watch, but the Iggles might wake up any time.

Van: The Eagles will need a police escort out of the stadium after losing this one, only to discover that the police escort was leading them into a Philadelphia S.W.A.T. team ambush…

Patriot Games?

So I'm following this story about the New England Patriots and the allegations concerning whether they steal defensive signals when the good people at ProFootballTalk.com ask a legitimate question:

Given that there are only 40 seconds between plays, is it even feasible to suggest that a team can steal defensive signals and relay that information to the offense in a timely enough manner to counteract the coming defense?

In the spy-versus-spy world that is NFL coaching and scouting, it is absolutely feasible.

All it takes is hours of film study and analysis, some cross-referencing, and a little old-fashioned computerized elbow grease...especially if you already know what you're looking for.

Every team has tendencies based on down, distance, and situation, because those teams take on the personalities of the people doing the decision-making. For example, if last year's Chargers were conservative to a fault, it's because the former head coach, Marty Schottenheimer, was conservative to a fault. He's just not as likely to call a go-route on third-and-2 deep in his own territory in the first quarter, while a Mike Martz or a Ron Turner might. If you know the man, you know the tendency.

Those tendencies can be confirmed on film. If you have a lot of computerized video storage (and what up-to-date NFL team doesn't...except the Browns, of course, who are still using cave drawings from the leather helmet era), you can sort your video by as many parameters as you can imagine: coach, personnel, down, distance, game time, field position, or any combination thereof. Watch enough film, and the pattern emerges. This is the essence of game-planning.

Now, let's say you focus a camera on the other guy's defensive coaches. All you need is a time stamp that matches the game time, and you can match the signal to the play being executed. Mark the relevant information (down, distance, situation, personnel, etc.), and compare it with the hours of film you've already compiled and the pattern is confirmed.

(Worse, as PFT suggested, word around the campfire is that the Patriots were putting microphones (!!) into the helmets of their defensive linemen, to capture offensive line calls and quarterback audibles. Again, match that information against the hindsight of film, and the pattern is confirmed. Maybe that's why the Patriots could just about run anyone out on defense, even Troy Brown (!!), and still be effective...hmmm...)

It would be like playing Texas Hold 'Em against Doyle Brunson and Phil Ivey, and knowing what their cards were before the flop.

And to answer Mike Florio's question, if you already have that information present, yes, you can relay that information to the offense.

Given the factors already in play, what you are looking for as a signal thief is confirmation. You already know that *Team A* is likely to zone blitz, based on their coach's tendencies in this situation. You've already called a play package that takes the zone blitz into account, but doesn't lock you into a zone blitz reaction. When you see what you suspect was coming, that's a simple YES to the offensive coordinator, who then relays that to the QB, and that might not take two seconds to accomplish.

The more signals that the Patriots have information for, the more quickly they can adjust the play package being sent in. As we know, the sophistication of modern offenses allows for multiple options in each play. If the Patriots are intercepting signals that they have already stolen and confirmed, especially at halftime, that adjustment is as simple as a couple more syllables.

Obviously, the system is not entirely foolproof because of the human element. Just because you know a zone blitz is coming doesn't mean you can do anything about it, if the athletes executing that blitz are faster than your blocking scheme can account for. Or, it could be something as mundane as a lineman slipping just a little bit while trying to react to an anticipated stunt, or a receiver just failing to beat the jam that he knew was coming.

That said, knowing what the defense is calling would amount to a huuuuuge competitive disadvantage and might explain the Patriots' otherworldly success of the last few seasons.

And this is what we are left with: at the very least, we must question the authenticity of New England's titles, because these charges have been made against Bill Belichick before on multiple occasions. Like the NBA scandal involving Tim Donaghy, this goes to the heart of the integrity of the game. If it is confirmed that Belichick and his staff have conspired to steal signals and use that information to gain an unfair competitive advantage, Judge Kennesaw Mountain Goodell must drop the gavel on Belichick as swiftly and surely as he did on Adam "Pac-Man" Jones and Michael Vick.

And like the aforementioned Vick tragedy, one wonders what will be revealed as this particular sweater continues to unravel, because, as the ink-stained wretches like to say, this story has legs.

Quick Slants - Week 1

So, what do we know after the first full week of football in '07?

We suspect that the NFC is the junior conference, but it would be a bit premature to make that judgment based on the weekend's action as Peter King of Sports Illustrated does here.

I respect Peter King's football wisdom, but I also think that certain results might have been different had the teams played in a different venue...particularly San Diego and Chicago. Had that game been played in Chicago and not San Diego, the Bears would likely have won, and even King admits "(f)or 44 minutes, the Bears beat the living tar out of the Tomlinsons."

Change the location of that game, and the NFC/AFC score stands at 2-2, and not 1-3 (with the lone NFC victory coming over the Miami Fish Guts).

Having said that, it would not have mattered where Indianapolis played New Orleans, because they really were that much better.

Speaking of obvious, new team, new year, same old Joey Harrington...

...and I'll hear nothing about those interceptions returned for touchdowns being someone else's fault, because those kind of things just don't seem to happen to Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady...(or any number of other competent QBs).

Right about now, Chester Taylor is really hoping that his hip gets a lot better in a hurry, because he's about to get Wally Pipp'ed by rookie Adrian Peterson...

...and speaking of backs named Adrian Peterson, Cedric Benson needs to butch the hell up and run like a starting running back or he will be backing up the next man again.

If I'm being honest, most people like myself tend to make too much of early season victories and losses, no matter how impressive. Thus, I would offer the following games for discounts:

1. Don't take too much from San Diego's victory over Chicago. Both defenses were savaging both offenses, and both offenses are better than they showed on Sunday. Believe me, that NFC North schedule is all the balm the Bears need to get right.

2. Don't take too much from Seattle beating Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay was a classic example of a road dog, and Seattle got enough from Shaun Alexander to keep the Bucs from making it a game.

3. And will everyone hyperventilating over Pittsburgh's victory over Cleveland please sit down and shut up? The Browns are a football team in name only. Their defense is practically nonexistent, and Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson are trivia question answers. The only reason that Brady Quinn won't start right away is because GM Phil Savage wants to keep his job past this season, and that won't happen if Quinn gets thrown to the wolves against the likes of Cincinnati, Baltimore, and New England before the bye week. Ben Roethlisberger had four TD passes against the Cleveland Toe-tags, where Manning or Brady might have had 20.

That San Francisco/Arizona tilt almost didn't go according to script; the Cardinals showed a lot more fight than most would have given them credit for. That said, for a team searching for an identity after decades of losing, this kind of loss hurts worse than getting kicked in the man region, because it's like it doesn't matter how hard they play, they still end up taking in in the right hand column.

On the other hand, give some credit to the Niners. They could have folded in this game, but they didn't. They'll take some confidence from this one and move forward.

But I'll tell you who isn't moving forward: Philadelphia. The Packers should never have been in that game, to say nothing of actually winning. Allegedly, Philadelphia had distinct advantages over the Pack at QB, RB, WR, and DEF. In truth, the Packers had the only advantage that counted: they showed up and played.

And I have long defended Donovan McNabb, but if this is the kind of performance we can get used to seeing from him, if injury has robbed him of that much of his ability to lead his team, the Kevin Kolb era can't get started soon enough.

Bravo, Houston. Kansas City really is not as bad as you made them look. They will rebound and win some games, once they get their sea legs under them, but you went into a hostile situation and told the Arrowhead faithful to mind their own business while you dismantled their team. These Texans are for real.

And good for you, Mario Williams. The game you played against KC was nothing less than dominant. Meanwhile, Reggie Bush is starting to look like the expensive hood ornament that I thought he'd be coming out of college; the guy is Raghib Ismail all over again, lightning fast but with no true position.

Speaking of the state of Texas, wasn't Dallas' defense supposed to be better than this? Nothing wrong with that O, though...

Lock Of The Century: I am in a Survivor Football League, where you live or die based on picking one game. As long as Cleveland and Atlanta are in the league and on the road for half of their games, I can't possibly lose.

So, uh, did Antwaan Randle-El and Santana Moss have a Freaky Friday and switch bodies while no one was looking? Because five catches for 162 yards is a stat line one would normally attribute to ol' feast or famine Moss and not free agent bust Randle-El, but there the former Hoosier was, putting up real numbers in a real football game.

Of course, it could just be a simple case of blind squirrels and random acorns...

Evidence of a team: Tennessee beat Jacksonville with a fairly mortal Vince Young. That's impressive, because I had assumed that Young had to get dressed in a phone booth every Sunday for the Titans to have a chance. If they are going continue to get dominant rushing performances from Chris Brown and LenWhale White, and Young can play up to his ability, this team could be better than advertised.

And, oh, won't I just have fun slapping Bill Bryan around for his Week 1 picks...heh heh heh...

Bill's Pre-Season Blatherings

I've given you my pre-season picks with Bill's editing...now, here's Bill's picks with my blatherings. Remember, throughout the season, my weekly picks will be found here, or by clicking on the article's title.

Welcome back, football fans. I will not speak for you, but a summer of MLS and NASCAR has my bloodlust simmering over. This season, I will be sharpening my knife with one Van Walker, whom some of you may remember as the unfortunate that I beat regularly and resoundingly during last season’s Last Columnist Typing Competition, only to have victory weaseled away from me in the 11th hour. If you have some different recollection of how that whole thing went, feel free to keep it to yourself.

Firstly, we are dropping big picture outlooks on you. Please remember that English is Van’s fourth language and that he cannot actually watch football in the yurt where he lives on the other side of the world, so do not judge him too harshly, but keep it in mind when wagering.

Van: Actually, the Dalai Lama’s little brother, Lorenzo, has the dish and the Direct TV Superfan package…

Secondly (through Eighteenthly), we will get specific about the outcomes of each week. You can check it out every Friday morning during football season – if you find your way to either of our sites, we will leave bread crumbs so you can find us.

Let the wild rumpus begin.

Are you not entertained?

AFC East:
Bill’s Pick: New England Patriots
There is a reason everybody is picking the Patriots, and while the off-season additions of Adalius Thomas, Wes Welker and Randy Moss sound great, the real reason is the potentially awful three other teams in this division.

Van: This one was a no-brainer…which means you qualify.

AFC North:
Bill’s Pick: Baltimore Ravens
The defense will no longer have to carry a team suddenly gushing with actual offensive promise, and the Ravens will hold off the surprising Steelers to win football’s best division despite their ridiculous uniforms.

Van: Two lucid picks in a row? Ohhhh, I get it. Tell your wife to stop writing.

AFC South:
Bill’s Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
Surprised? If you like the Colts, here’s a quiz: what happens when you make the NFL’s worst defense worse? Byron Leftwich is not done (and better than you think), Marcus Stroud is healthy, and the team finally has Maurice Jones-Drew to take the burden of hope from the paper mache Fred Taylor.

Van: (choking) WHAT? Have you not heard of the COLTS? Jacksonville is a toxic waste dump in the swamp, from QB drama (where they went from inadequate to inadequate), to RB drama (where they are still starting the wrong guy, until he gets inevitably broken), to those Teflon-handed receivers…Dude, you are making this waaaay too easy already.

AFC West:
Bill’s Pick: San Diego Chargers
While Norv Turner has failed spectacularly at both of his previous head coaching stops, so did his predecessors and successors, so it was not necessarily him. In any case, he should be a veteran enough presence not to get in the way of the most talented team in the NFL, and there is very little threat in this division.

Van: Before you go man-loving Norv “It Ain’t His Fault” Turner, let me remind you that Bobby Ross took the Lions (!!) to 9-7 and the verge of the playoffs in 2000, only to give way to the benighted Marty Mornhingweg, who took the same players to 2-14 in 2001. Anything less than a Super Bowl victory will be a failure for a team this talented, and the fault will fall squarely and deservedly upon Turner’s sloping shoulders.

AFC Wild Card #1:
Bill’s Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Mike Tomlin has all the fire that Bill Cowher lost, and although I have some concerns about their running game, a strong defense and passing game will carry them through. Big Ben Roethlisberger will be the quarterback they thought he was, and only a year behind schedule.

Van: You. Are. NOT. Serious. These guys couldn’t get out of their own way last season, and they won’t get out of their own division this season. For all of Mike Timlin’s forehead vein popping out, this team gets rolled by Baltimore and Cincinnati (four losses in the division), and has to play Denver in Denver, San Francisco, Seattle, at New England, and at St. Louis. That’s nine losses right there, and I haven’t even counted Brady Quinn’s coming-out party on November 11.

AFC Wild Card #2:
Bill’s Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Unlikely as it seems that three teams should make it out of the same division, it is not completely unprecedented. Just last year, the Cowboys, Giants and Eagles all made the playoffs. This year, Carson Palmer’s 40 touchdowns and Rudi Johnson’s 16 will just be too many points to deny the Bengals.

Van: See, its these occasional returns to normalcy that throw me off…although Carson Palmer won’t throw 40 TDs this season, not even with Chris Henry on work release for the stretch run.

AFC Offensive Player of the Year:
Bill’s Pick: Carson Palmer, QB, Cincinnati
He looks terrific after a healthy off-season, and is blessed both by an embarrassment of offensive talent and a brutal defense that will keep him throwing in all four quarters of every game.

Van: Palmer’s problem is that he’s third in public perception behind Manning and Brady…and he’ll get lost in the wash when the hype machine runs Brady Quinn and Jay Cutler up the flagpole.

AFC Defensive Player of the Year:
Bill’s Pick: Marcus Stroud, DT, Jacksonville
Fine, Stroud probably will not win this, but he should. Some sexy, fly around the field and blow stuff up guy like Shawn Merriman or Troy Polamalu is a better bet, but it will be just another sad victory of style over substance.

Van: Stroud won’t even be seen for the cloud hanging over this franchise…this award goes to Adalius Thomas in New England.

AFC Rookie of the Year:
Bill’s Pick: Tony Ugoh, T, Indianapolis
Strong and agile, he has all the physical attributes you could ever want in a left tackle, and as the guy protecting the Golden Boy’s blind side, he will become the receptacle for the best coaching and most inventive motivational tactics available anywhere.

Van: You almost got this one right…which is somewhat like saying that you almost didn’t have to repeat 5th grade…twice…Ugoh won’t win this award precisely because he’ll “become the receptacle for the best coaching and most inventive motivational tactics available anywhere;” in other words, the perception will be that he was carried along. Marshawn Lynch, on the other hand, will be flying virtually solo in the wasteland that is Buffalo.

NFC East:
Bill’s Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
In this world of uncertainty, Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb trump Wade Phillips and Tony Romo. The Redskins are about to be replaced in the premiere league by the Argonauts and I am not even sure who will be playing for the Giants, only that they will not lift a finger to save Tom Coughlin’s job.

Van: Eagles/Boys, six of one, half-dozen of the other…and I haven’t looked, but I already know you have the Cowboys winning a Wild Card. So let it be written; so let it be done.

NFC North:
Bill’s Pick: Chicago Bears
In the most painful division to watch, the Bears will again bludgeon everybody into submission. As much as nobody is sold on Rex Grossman, they would be well-served to save some suspicion for Cedric Benson, who I see as a 3.5 yards per carry guy as the feature back. Do not sleep on Detroit.

Van: No, it’s do not sleep IN Detroit. The Lions will go 5-11 at best, but it will be a very entertaining 5-11. As for the Bears, that assault-with-intent defense faces Jon Kitna, Brett Favre, and Tavaris Jackson six times this season…that’s like a million interceptions or something.

NFC South:
Bill’s Pick: Carolina Panthers
Somebody has to win this division and New Orleans is only a Drew Brees injury from being a six-win team. The remarkable timing of Brees’ injuries to this point should not lead anyone to believe that he is sturdy. Carolina has better depth and a better defense with Morgan back, although both of these teams will benefit from four wins over Tampa and Atlanta.

Van: Holy catfish, if you’re going to play the injury card, you’d better play Carolina’s Mr. Injury Report his own self, a/k/a Steve Smith. The Panthers are one Smith hammy away from John Fox getting the axe after a dismal 7-9 campaign.

NFC West:
Bill’s Pick: San Francisco 49ers
The Niners should by all rights be another year away, but with a strong off-season in which they did absolutely everything right, signing Nate Clements, drafting Patrick Willis and Joe Staley, developing Alex Smith and Vernon Davis, even resting Frank Gore, they manage to distinguish themselves in a division that almost any team in the AFC could win.

Van: You and I made the same picks for the same reason. I think I just puked into my mouth.

NFC Wild Card #1:
Bill’s Pick: New Orleans Saints
And on the other hand, Brees might again miraculously make it through the season before getting hurt, in which case the ‘Aints are plenty good enough to emerge from a weak field.

Van: That’s a nice backpedal you’re showing there…you might play cornerback better than Jason David did on Thursday (snicker).

NFC Wild Card #2:
Bill’s Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Phillips should steady their schizophrenic defense, and with all of the question marks surrounding the team, they have the golden ticket: a steady two-headed running attack to move the chains and the clock.

Van: So stipulated.

NFC Offensive Player of the Year:
Bill’s Pick: Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia
McNabb was well on his way to running away with this in 2006 when he got hurt. Again. The man with the most grueling off-season regimen in sports will be ready, and he will stay healthy to hold off the beast that is Steven Jackson.

Van: He could win Man of the Year, MVP, the Irish Sweepstakes, and the Nobel Prize for Physics, and the fans in the Illadelph will still unfairly hold him accountable for everything from losing the Super Bowl to global warming.

NFC Defensive Player of the Year:
Bill’s Pick: Brian Urlacher, LB, Chicago
Why do we even have this award?

Van: Good for you, you picked a Bear. Too bad you picked the wrong one (see: Harris, Tommie).

NFC Rookie of the Year:
Bill’s Pick: Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit
Sometimes, chalk is chalk for a reason. This guy is the eye of the perfect storm, with impossible physical ability and so sane a perspective that he should play a different position. Then you give him a veteran quarterback, an offensive genius drawing up plays and a legitimate number one receiver on the other side of the field.

Van: Johnson will win because the Lions will stink out loud all season. They have no running game to speak of (I mean, Tatum Bell couldn’t produce in DENVER, and Detroit’s offensive line is worse than a row of folding chairs), and they will be playing from behind all season.

Super Bowl:
Bill’s Pick: Baltimore over Chicago
Da Bears have taken a firm step back from last year, but as nobody else has stepped up to accept the challenge, the home field advantage will be too high a barrier to entry for the rest of a weak NFC. The Ravens’ passing attack will send them soaring through the season, but they will survive the brutal war of attrition that is the AFC playoffs the way winners do: running and defense.

Van: A firm step back? Let’s see, we replaced Tank Johnson with Tommie Harris…that must be that firm step back you’re talking about. No, wait, it must be replacing Thomas Jones with Cedric Benson, never mind that Jones hasn’t produced anywhere else in his career except in Chicago, or that the Bears drafted Benson precisely because they knew that Jones wasn’t the long-term answer…this team brings everyone back from the Super runner-up last season, and with Tommie Harris in the middle of that D-line, they will overwhelm anyone the AFC sends to Arizona.

That’s a beating, right there. Van, I do not see how you will ever recover from the pounding you took before the season ever started. I only hope your general lack of comprehension allows you to avoid therapy.

Van: I have two words for you, my friend: psychotropic medication. Look into it.

Week 1 Prognostications

In what will be the format for the whole season, I'll be posting Bill's picks here (and slapping him around for them, of course), and he'll be posting my picks on his site (click the article title to get there, or paste www.williamlbryan.com into your browser).

Release the hounds!

Thursday

New Orleans at Indianapolis
Bill’s pick: New Orleans
This is a trap game. If you are a gambler, and we do not condone such activities here, leave the teams alone and take the over. It makes no difference what the over is. The Colts’ almost-league-worst run defense, minus Cato June and Booger McFarland, its purported best run defenders, is facing the league’s best running attack. The Colts will score, but they have to put up a bare minimum of 35 to keep up with their own brutal defense.

Van: I wish I could say that I made this up for Bill, I really do…holy cow…

Sunday

Denver at Buffalo
Bill’s pick: Denver
Another trap game, and I am taking the Broncos only because they are my team. No shuffling, no rationalization. That’s my analysis. Although the game scares me, although the Broncos look vulnerable on the road against a bad team, although I have no evidence that the Broncos could stop David Lynch, much less Marshawn, I am picking the Broncos because I want them to win. Hello? Yahoo Sports? You want me to what?

Van: You get a pass for picking your homeboys…I mean, you don’t seriously expect me to pick against the Bears, do you?

Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Bill’s pick: Pittsburgh
The Browns pick the most unfortunate possible year to assemble talent, running straight into the teeth of football’s strongest division. Mike Tomlin’s scary single-mindedness reminds me of another chinny Pittsburgh coach. My boy Twinkie once offered this scenario: if you put all the NFL head coaches in a room with nothing but loincloths and only one of them could walk out, who would it be? The answer used to be Bill Cowher. Now it’s Tomlin. Where do they find these guys?

Van: First it’s New Orleans, now it’s NFL head coaches in loincloths…and, uh, just where does that leave us with Andy Reid and Mike Holmgren? Ewwwwwww

Philadelphia at Green Bay
Bill’s pick: Philadelphia
Although the Packers’ defense is poised to join the NFL’s elite, their offense is still expected to score occasionally, maybe not turn the ball over. I do not see great feng shui in a backfield of geriatric Brett Favre and rookie Brandon Jackson.

Van: The Packers’ defense will join the NFL’s elite when the Packers’ offense stops leaving them 15 yards of field to defend every other possession.

Kansas City at Houston
Bill’s pick: Houston
Larry Johnson will be worn down by halftime. They could give the man the ball 600 times, but unless he learns to block for himself (making his big new contract a pretty fair bargain), KC is in for a very long season. I just looked, and I am the third receiver on their depth chart. Houston may be much improved this year, and this should give them some confidence out of the gate.

Van: Couldn’t have said it better myself, except that I did.

Tennessee at Jacksonville
Bill’s pick: Jacksonville
Good morning, Nashville. You are not as good as you think you are, nor as everyone is telling you that you are. You are a team with a bad pass defense, mediocre run defense and very little depth at your skill positions. You have the most exciting young quarterback in football and are about to find out that young and exciting are not necessarily good things. Welcome to Jacksonville. Here are your heads. Now get out.

Van: I’ll remember you said that, especially after Byron Leftwich shoots Jack Del Rio from the Grassy Swamp Knoll…no way Tennessee loses this game. Jacksonville is a soap opera mess, right on the eve of the season, and that never works out well.

Atlanta at Minnesota
Bill’s pick: Atlanta
Ugh. Dog fighting vs. the Love Boat. I am sure Roger Goodell will want to be on hand for this showcase. On the field may not be a lot better, where Joey Harrington gets to be the superior quarterback for the first time since leaving Oregon. Both Minnesota and Atlanta play solid D, so maybe the Indy and N’Awlins would be willing to spot them some points that they just have lying around.

Van: I’d try to say something funny here, except that you did it for me by picking Atlanta. HAVE YOU SEEN THEIR QB? I’d have a hard time picking Atlanta if He Who Shall Not Be Named was still missing open receivers, but noooooo, you had to go and pick a team that is starting JOEY BY-GOD HARRINGTON…geez…

New England at the Jets
Bill’s pick: New England
I watched them and still cannot tell you how the Jets won 10 games last year. Here is where the Mangenius falls victim to first and only ever Sopranos curse. Bill Belichick holds a grudge like a mother-in-law (or worse, MY mother-in-law), does not like Mangini and really does not like his infringement upon Belichick’s “genius” copyright. This game is over quickly, but do not expect Brady’s foot to come off the gas.

Van: Oh, yes, this one will be a blowout of Patriotic proportions, fo’ sho.

Carolina at St. Louis
Bill’s pick: St. Louis
If Jim Haslet had six months to scheme for every game, St. Louis would be awesome, so do not be fooled by this game’s outcome. The Ram D is not as good as it will look. After this week, they will become a weird collection of talent with a stud running back, but that’s more than we can say for…

Van: Weird collection, schmeird collection…Marc Bulger, Steven Jackson, and Torry Holt are fantasy gold, baby!

Miami at Washington
Bill’s pick: Miami
One of these teams will win this game, which is more than they can say for their remaining fifteen. I’m going to say better defense and more experienced quarterback trumps home-field advantage. But I don’t think it matters. This is like the play-in game.

Van: You picked Miami. You actually picked Miami. I wouldn’t pick Miami if the choices were washing up on South Beach or washing up in the Chesapeake. I wouldn’t pick Miami if the choices for worst city image were Tony Montana or Marion The Crackhead Barry. I wouldn’t pick Miami if Ricky Ganjah was still smoking the holy herb behind that Foster Grant lens. Miami stinks out loud, on wheat, and in person.

Detroit at Oakland
Bill’s pick: Detroit
Here’s the DirecTV game of the week. Do Detroit and Oakland still have fans? Does anyone actually want to see this game? Detroit may be on the come here, and their Mike Martz offense with a bunch of shiny toys might be fun to watch, but I would not be completely stunned if they completely washed out. Do you remember when they had to save Wayne Fontes’ job by winning their last four games every year? You think they will rally to save Rod Marinelli and Matt Millen the same way? Oakland, by the way, is on the clock.

Van: Last I checked, Oakland is still on the clock from the last draft…

Chicago at San Diego
Bill’s pick: Chicago
A’ight, Bears and Chargers fans together with me: are you *&%$ing kidding me? Why do we have to play the Super Bowl in September? You would say that this is a good measuring stick for both teams but nothing is less indicative of a team’s season than its first game. Look for LT to struggle after not seeing the rock all pre-season, and look for Rex Grossman to keep the doubters at bay. He is still eight weeks to meltdown, but he wants to break Chitown’s hearts first.

Van: Okay, Da Bearss defense versus a hurricane? DA BEARSS. Okay, Da Bearss defense versus a hurricane…but dere hands are tied? (Oh, dat’s a good one…) DA BEARSS…but it’ll be close…’zat a Category Fife hurricane, dere? It is? Hokay, den, overtime…DA BEARSS…

Tampa Bay at Seattle
Bill’s pick: Seattle
It’s a good thing I’m playing receiver for the Chefs, otherwise I would be the Bucs’ ninth quarterback. I guess they are only carrying eight. The Seahawks have the best home-field advantage in football and a whole lot fewer questions than Chucky’s soldiers. I think Ronde Barber has to play defense by himself this year, because all I have heard for certain is all the guys who will not be playing for them.

Van: Jon Gruden has collected bad QBs like some really bad fantasy owner…and if I use the word “bad” again, I get a bonus for being, well, bad.

The Giants at Dallas
Bill’s pick: Dallas
The ‘Boys love it when the circus comes to town. The G-Men roll in with the disinterested active sacks leader, the most second-guessed quarterback in the game, and the most hated coach in any sport. Coach Coughlin, Frank Kush has a plaque for you.

Van: Tom Coughlin, please pick up the white courtesy phone…

Monday

Baltimore at Cincinnati
Bill’s pick: Baltimore
There will be no warm-up on either side of the ball for a Bengals team that still needs a defensive identity and a red zone receiver to replace the oddly not-incarcerated Chris Henry. Much as I like Cincinnati, they are not ready.

Van: This may represent the soundest piece of judgment you’ve rendered all day…must be back on your meds.

Arizona at San Francisco
Bill’s pick: San Francisco
No team had a better off-season than the Niners, and they have been dying to try it all out on somebody. Speaking of teams not yet ready – Arizona is a solid year of development, maybe two, behind San Francisco. Note to Ken Whisenhunt – if your offensive line sucks, so will your team. Immutable law of football.

Van: Yup, this one confirmed it…you’re back on your Schedule-3 narcotics, aren’t ya? The room has stopped spinning, and the little voices in you head are all humming the same tune. Too bad you couldn’t have done this for the majority of your picks, bunky.

Kornheiser v. Wilbon...sorta...

Now that the Michael Vick fiasco is finally out of the way, we can now get down to the real business of the upcoming season: correctly forecasting the conferences, and wiping the mat with Bill Bryan (again). (You may remember Bill as the guy who finished First Loser, er, second to me in a sports writing contest last year...or, you may remember him from To Catch A Predator 9 on NBC, where he was nabbed at the home of someone alleging to be 13...it's what I heard, anyway...)

The plan is simple: I will offer you my decades of accrued NFL wisdom on a weekly basis, gleaned through years of intense study, while Bill will offer what can only be termed the lighter side of sports comedy (I hesitate to call them “picks,” as criminally inaccurate as most of them are, and calling them “opinions” does a major disservice to the term “opinions”).

TO GET TO BILL'S SITE (www.williamlbryan.com), SO AS TO READ REAL, GENUINE FOOTBALL OPINION FROM YOUR HUMBLE SCRIBE, CLICK ON THE ARTICLE'S TITLE (in this case, 'Kornheiser v. Wilbon...sorta', above)

Again, I apologize in advance for anything the other guy says. You know how it is…

Bill: I accept your apology. Don’t let it happen again.

AFC East:
Van’s Pick: New England Patriots
Last season, an allegedly rebuilding campaign, saw them almost represent their conference in the Super Bowl, and this with the Little Sisters Of The Poor at WR. This season, you can name their receivers. Better yet, Sweatshirt Bill has a shiny new toy to play with at MLB in Adalius Thomas…and opposing offenses in the AFC just shuddered. If this team doesn’t represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, the next one will…

Bill: Duh. No, seriously, duh.

AFC North
Van’s Pick: Baltimore Ravens
No, really? All this team did was go 13-3 without Willis McGahee. And, last time I checked, Rex Ryan was still the defensive coordinator. You’ll remember Rex’s daddy…pig farmer named Buddy. Mark Clayton becomes the most famous receiver named Mark Clayton since, uh, Mark Clayton (and if you’re old enough to remember the guy that used to play catch with Dan Marino, welcome to the rest of your life). This team is, as Ron White says, l-o-o-o-o-a-d-d-d-d-e-d…

Bill: Do not let the fact that you stumbled into a couple of correct picks lull you into a false sense of security. Keep your luggage with you at all times.

AFC South
Van’s Pick: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have been the class of this division since, like, well, since there ever was an AFC South. Defensive defections notwithstanding (say that three times), they remain the class of their division.

Bill: Your ability to gloss over key losses to an already putrid defense is disquieting. Are you a Republican?

AFC West
Van’s Pick: San Diego Chargers
Even Norv Turner can’t keep this team from making the playoffs. However, he can keep them from reaching the AFC Championship game. Eventually, someone in charge is NOT going to hire someone whose championship pedigree hasn’t worn threadbare (Turner), or hire a guy haunted by the ghosts of playoff failures past (Schottenheimer)…

Bill: We should play for stakes this year - in addition to the usual beer that you will never have to pay off by virtue of living on the dark side of the moon – how about the guy with the most correct picks gets to be the Chargers’ head coach next year?

AFC Wildcard 1
Van’s Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Carson Palmer continues playing Third Fiddle behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady; Ocho Cinco and Whosyamama continue to catch darts; and the defense remains ornery. This team will win enough to secure a playoff berth, but they aren’t deep enough to go further.

Bill: Allow me to commit to a heresy here that may come back to haunt me. The Cincinnati Bengals are the Indianapolis Colts, only better. Big Brother Peyton is a more proven commodity and does finally sport some jewelry, but can you look me in the eye and tell me he is better than Carson Palmer? Better arm? Better leader? And if you need a receiver to make a play, would you take Mr. Cinco or Marvin Harrison? Joseph Addai has a much better upside than Rudi Johnson, but it’s a bit of the reverse Palmer-Manning argument. The Bengals D is absolutely mediocre, but WOW, would I take mediocre over freaking awful.

AFC Wildcard 2
Van’s Pick: Tennessee Titans
Some teams take on the personality of their leaders. If I’m gambling on a young QB leading my team to the playoffs, I’m putting the mortgage on Vince Young. The guy won with a whole lotta nothing happening at WR and RB last year, and it sez so right here that he’ll keep right on doing that because, unlike Mike ConVick, Young is the uber-athletic QB who maximizes his teammates’ gifts, as opposed to exposing their flaws.

Bill: That’s a cute speech about Vince Young. You’re a cute guy. Anyone ever tell you that? Here’s my advice to you, free of charge ‘cause I’m a magnanimous guy – put this one away. Give it to us two years from now. Two years from now, you will be right. This year, you are backing the soon to be proven clueless figurehead of a six-win team.

AFC Offensive Player Of The Year:
Van’s Pick: Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis
Right about now, Edgerrin James is feeling like the guy who told the hot girl he was dating that she’d be sorry when he left…only to find out that, who knew? she wasn’t, after all. It’s really almost unfair. Addai is everything James was in the Colts offense, minus the University of MiaMEEEE attitude. Addai will be the most complete offensive weapon in the Colts’ considerable arsenal this season, and will likely cost his QB the MVP by splitting the vote.

Bill: Joseph Addai blows up this year. Sez so right here, as the saying goes. But in the quarterback-rich AFC, a running back is going to have to put up two large on the ground and catch 70 balls to get a sniff. Chicks dig the long ball, but man-crushes are all quarterbacks.

AFC Defensive Player Of The Year
Van’s Pick: Adalius Thomas, New England
If you thought Jeff Fisher could take advantage of this guy’s ability, wait until Bill Belichick unleashes him on opposing offenses. This guy will be a bigger, stronger, shorn version of Troy Polamalu, and he will stand out in a perennially superior defense.

Bill: When you try to sell Thomas as the 270-pound Polamalu, you are just luring people onto the rocks. Stop it. Really. Thomas is an intriguing talent, but it will take at least this year, and maybe next as well, for he and Belichick to adapt to one another. Playing in a new scheme is tough, but learning it at six different positions as you beg is well nigh impossible.

AFC Rookie of the Year
Van’s Pick: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buffalo
This team could actually improve at RB after losing Willis McGahee. Lynch is a genuine mail-carrier who will need no introduction after Week 2. With J.P. Losman as his QB, he’s going to be delivering all season long.

Bill: Bust. Lynch is the Redskins’ next great third-down back, but he is going to need to get his brains beat out off-tackle in Buffalo for a few years before that comes to fruition. He needs to man up a la Thomas Jones to be productive, and that’s a lot of hours in the weight room, kids.

NFC East
Van’s Pick: Dallas Cowboys
Either the ‘Boys or the Iggles win this division, and, last I checked, the Cowboys still have better WRs than Philly. The ‘Boys also have a better defense, and a decidedly less distracted head coach. Tony Romo picks the ball up, T.O. continues to catch everything in sight (anyone catch his numbers after his, er, dramatic season? Wow), and the two-headed Barber-Jones monster piles up the yards. How ‘bout them Cowboys!

Bill: First of all, stat boy wants to point out that TO led the NFL in dropped passes last year, a stat nobody even knew they kept until it belonged to your boy. But maybe you are right – maybe he does not see that well. Now then, since we essentially agree here, you bring up a philosophical point that has been bothering me – is there a possibility that the rigors of being an NFL head coach diametrically oppose the necessary commitment to be a good father? I am not in any way asserting that Andy Reid, Bill Belichick or Tony Dungy are responsible for their sons’ troubles, but how many pieces need to line up together before it’s a pattern?

NFC North
Van’s Pick: Chicago Bears
Really, nothing to see here. Move along.

Bill: Holy Mary mother of God, have you seen the rest of this division? Is there really, seriously nobody in the Arena League that they can promote to challenge the Bears here?

NFC South
Van’s Pick: New Orleans Saints
Let’s see: everybody back? Check. Division still suck? Check. Still going to lose to the Bears? Check. What’s not to love about this team? They have the best offense in the NFC, bar none, a relatively weak division (only Carolina can dispute their claim), and a reason to keep pushing (that beatdown they took in the Chi last season…ugh)

Bill: I don’t love their defense, although it was mysteriously better than it was under Jim Haslett with essentially the same players, and I am concerned about the loss of Joe Horn. Horn is a first-class wingnut, but was a leader and mentor to a talented, but very young receiving corps. I like the Saints, but although I love Drew Brees, they are one shoulder injury away from 7-9. You have to downgrade them for that. And no, I have no explanation for why I did not apply the same logic to the Eagles.

NFC West:
Van’s Pick: San Francisco 49ers
This may well be the kiss of death, but…”all the pieces are in place.” I had to say it, you understand. Alex Smith is poised on the edge of greatness. Frank Gore is already there. Vernon Davis is the next great tight end in a league replete with very good ones. The defense has been improved, and we’ve even added a necessary chemistry factor: Seattle castoff Darrell Jackson comes in and provides a little “you should never have cut me” moxie. This is the most complete team in the division.

Bill: I hate myself for having made this pick. I guess that means I hate you, too.

NFC Wildcard 1
Van’s Pick: Carolina Panthers
They’ve got a nice QB, who is regressing. They’ve got some nice defensive players, yet their defense ranked near the bottom of the league last season. They’ve got some nice RBs, but the wrong guy is starting. And there’s always a problem when your best offensive player is an oft-injured receiver. They’ll easily make the playoffs in the talent-depleted NFC, but they won’t go farther than that.

Bill: John Fox is an excellent defensive coach, they are healthier than last year (at least temporarily), and so the Panthers defense will be much better this year. That’s all I got. You pretty much killed it otherwise.

NFC Wildcard 2
Van’s Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
This may be as much backtracking as you’ll hear from me, but you can bank this: if Philly doesn’t win the division, they get the wild card. If Dallas doesn’t win the division, the ‘Boys get the wild card. I just happen to like the Cowboys a little more than the Eagles right now, but that isn’t to say that I don’t like the Eagles to play well.

Bill: Precisely. Apparently, the wise football fan is ambivalent about this division race going into the year. It should be noted, however, that neither of these teams would be good enough to make the playoffs in the AFC.

NFC Offensive Player of the Year
Van’s Pick: Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
The kid goes to the first of many Pro Bowls this season, with offensive numbers that will put him in some pretty nice Niners company.

Bill: I should be impressed that you went out on a limb somewhere rather than playing the chalk all the way up and down your card, but I am not. I am very impressed with Alex Smith’s improvement, as well, but he is still inexperienced, did not get the opportunity in the preseason to show that he has improved his blitz management (which was atrocious), and he is absolutely no better than the third best quarterback in the NFC. Your Pro Bowl quarterbacks will be McNabb, Brees and Grossman. Smith will have to be satisfied with being better than Jim Druckenmiller.

NFC Defensive Player of the Year
Van’s Pick: Tommie Harris, Chicago Bears
Harris stays healthy this season because of an improved defensive line (a scary-enough thought), but he provides the room for Urlacher, Hillenmeyer, and Briggs to do their search and destroy thing, while also doing his best Michael Myers impression on the interior. This guy will be positively Jurassic for 16 games, and will play well enough that fans won’t worry about Rex Grossman mishandling the football occasionally.

Bill: Whatever, dude. Urlacher’s name is already on the hardware. We can all agree that Harris will make it possible, but he will go home this off-season without his props, as will every great defensive tackle until the mountains tumble to the sea and all that.

NFC Rookie of the Year
Van’s Pick: Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
We saw this one coming, after a stellar season with the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets in which he made highlight reel catch after highlight reel catch. We saw it coming at the Combine, when he ran a blinding 4.2 in borrowed shoes. We’ll see it a lot this season because the Lions stink out loud and will be behind in every game they play, which means a lot of balls in the air as the team tries to come back…which means lots of Calvin Johnson pictures on the Worldwide Fearless Leader. This one’s a gimme.

Bill: Calvin Johnson is so good.

Super Bowl:
Van’s Pick: Chicago over anyone the AFC runs up the flagpole.
Oh, yes, I’m taking the Bears against the field, and I will win for one simple reason: Tommie Harris. The Bears defense was good enough to get to the Super Bowl last season without him; they will be utterly dominant with him on the field. They will be so good that the offense will be an afterthought…an afterthought that routinely starts drives on the opposing team’s 35, that is…Lance Briggs will be auditioning for some Dwight Freeney money, Devin Hester will continue to outrun everything chasing him, Cedric Benson will be just good enough to justify letting Thomas Jones go, and they will be shuffling in Chicago.

Bill: Ced has more miles on him than your Datsun B210. This is a guy who carried an LJ-sized load at Midland Lee – he was a 30 year-old running back before he ever set foot in Austin. Adrian Peterson will be their serviceable ball carrier by mid-season. I have some concerns about the Bears’ off-season losses, namely Ron Rivera. You could claim that Lovie Smith is the real defensive architect, but his track record is inconclusive – we know he was solely responsible under Mike Martz in St. Louis, and he produced some really ordinary defenses. Mostly, I have already tired of your Bears worship. Being the best team in the NFC is like winning the Pacific Coast League – it’s better than second, but does not qualify you to play in the bigs.

Here's hoping that I didn't hurt the little fella too badly...after all, there's still 17 weeks of football and the playoffs ahead of us...heh heh heh...